FIN · T13

Why did the long end climb after the hike: growth, debt, or a missing buyer?

The rate rise did not tame long yields. The bill for AI’s capital binge is arriving through bonds, deficits and the investors now setting the price of duration.

Questions 4Open 3Call held 1Call missed 0

The questions

1. Settles Oct 28open

   Does the Fed funds target, upper bound (FRED series DFEDTARU) read higher on its first observation after October 28, 2026 than on its last observation before it?

2. Settles Oct 15resolved

   Did Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities at the end of August 2026, in the Treasury International Capital table of major foreign holders published in mid-October, read higher than at the end of July 2026?

3. No date yetopen

   Howell expects a major bond opportunity; failure to turn would keep the growth brake unproven.

4. Settles Jan 3open

   Leveraged-loan and corporate maturities arrive; stress would show today’s rates are reaching AI’s borrowers.

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