The DeepStack Call · Part 19 · Markets
The Interest Bill Comes First
SkepticalThe interest bill climbs; customers pay
Lenders carry what the neoclouds' customers do not prepay. The neocloud interest bill keeps climbing while Oracle's customers keep paying.
ConvictionModerate
What to do with this
- Read Oracle's operating cash without both deferred revenue lines: $7.7B against $28.5B of capex in the quarter to Aug 31, 2026.
- Divide each neocloud's net interest by its revenue every quarter: CoreWeave's was 24.9% in Q2 2026, from 22.0% a year earlier.
- Treat prepayments as terms that can lapse: IREN put recent ones at 45-55% of GPU capex on Aug 27, 2026, with no assurance they recur.
Next test · Dec 14, 2026Oracle's 10-Q for the quarter to November 30: whether its financed customer prepayments for the six months pass $11.363 billion, the first quarter's figure alone.