Nearly all of the climb is real yield

Data Desk · Live · Part 15Markets

Nearly all of the climb is real yield

The 10-year Treasury's move since the late-February low, split into the real yield and the inflation the market prices, from the daily closes. Count from another date and see whether the split holds.

As of Oct 22, 2026 · daily closes, at each build · published Oct 22, 2026 · read Oct 23, 2026 · observed · next release the next weekday build

Live data, updated Oct 23, 2026, 6:54 p.m. ET

What the chart says. Counted from Feb 27, 2026 (the late-February low) to Oct 22, 2026, the 10-year Treasury moved +99 bp, and 92 of those basis points came from the real yield (93% of the move). A rise that is real yield is the market charging more for money. That is the bill behind every loan in the buildout, and it does not come down when oil does.

Source: Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED (DGS10, DFII10 and T10YIE daily closes to Oct 22, 2026, refreshed at each build). Changes in basis points are DeepStack arithmetic.

Show the data table
Date10-year TreasuryReal yieldBreakeven inflationMove to latestOf it, realOf it, inflation
The late-February low (Feb 27, 2026)3.97%1.72%2.25%+99 bp+92 bp+7 bp
Start of the year (Jan 2, 2026)4.19%1.94%2.25%+77 bp+70 bp+7 bp
Fed hike day (Sep 16, 2026)5.01%2.68%2.33%−5 bp−4 bp−1 bp
A month ago (Sep 22, 2026)4.96%2.63%2.33%0 bp+1 bp−1 bp
Latest close (Oct 22, 2026)4.96%2.64%2.32%———
Read Part 15: Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.

Count the move from

10-year Treasury+99 bp

Real yield+92 bp

Breakeven inflation+7 bp

The +99 bp move from Feb 27, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026, by part

+92 bp

Real yieldBreakeven inflation

10-year TreasuryReal yield

From Feb 27, 2026 to Oct 22, 2026, the 10-year Treasury moved +99 bp: +92 bp from the real yield and +7 bp from expected inflation. That is the market charging more for money, not pricing more inflation.