The Buildout

17 investigations into the money behind AI. Each Part argues one question, takes a side in the Call and names the dated test that settles it, then opens its questions for your number.

Part 17 · Oct 21 · AI financing

The Guarantee Has No Date

How much of the AI buildout is debt the balance sheets do not show yet, and who carries it if a tenant walks away?

4 questions to playPart 16 · Oct 19 · AI financing

The Seller Holds the Paper

How much of the money buying AI chips was lent, guaranteed or invested by the companies selling them?

3 questions to playPart 15 · Oct 19 · AI financing

Oil Is the Headline. The Real Yield Is the Bill.

Can the AI trade survive a 10-year Treasury above 5% and an oil shock at the same time?

4 questions to playPart 14 · Oct 14 · Hyperscalers & cloud

The Cash Arrives Unevenly

Is AI revenue arriving fast enough for the biggest spenders to pay for their data centers out of their own cash?

4 questions to playPart 13 · Oct 10 · Power & grid

The Ratepayer Pays First

Who pays for the AI power bill?

2 questions to playPart 12 · Oct 9 · Models & labs

The Model Is Not the Price

Does the frontier model still command a price?

3 questions to playPart 11 · Oct 8 · Hyperscalers & cloud

The Backlog Is Not the Quarter

Do the orders turn into profit?

2 questions to playPart 10 · Oct 7 · AI financing

The Bubble Is in the Denominator

Does the hardware hold its value?

2 questions to playPart 9 · Oct 3 · Apps & agents

Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.

How fast do habits break?

2 questions to playPart 8 · Sep 29 · AI financing

AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity

Who writes the checks for the buildout?

2 questions to playPart 7 · Sep 27 · AI financing

The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.

Why did the long end climb after the hike: growth, debt, or a missing buyer?

1 question to playPart 6 · Sep 19 · Power & grid

Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.

Is power scarcity a warning, or a moat?

0 questions to playPart 5 · Sep 11 · Models & labs

OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business

What does a frontier lab sell: a commodity, or a premium?

0 questions to playPart 4 · Sep 4 · Hyperscalers & cloud

AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill

Is the capex spending defense, or is the return not there?

1 question to playPart 3 · Aug 15 · AI financing

The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.

The debt behind the machines: 1999 capex, 2008 credit, or neither?

1 question to playPart 2 · Aug 13 · AI financing

SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof

SpaceX after the IPO: exit liquidity, or the next ten-bagger?

0 questions to playPart 1 · Aug 10 · Semiconductors

Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.

Is the marginal buyer of AI compute real?

0 questions to play