Did Korea's early-November chip exports outpace last year by at least 265 percent?
How it settles
Read the semiconductor line of the Korea Customs Service release on exports for the first 20 days of November 2026, published November 23, 2026. Yes if up 265.0 percent or more from a year earlier. Korea Customs Service, preliminary exports and imports release
The exact question and the full rule
Did Korea's semiconductor exports in the first 20 days of November 2026 grow at or above 265.0% from a year earlier?
Read the semiconductor line of the Korea Customs Service release on exports for the first 20 days of November 2026 (preliminary, customs-clearance basis), published November 23, 2026. The answer is yes if semiconductor exports are up at or above 265.0% from a year earlier; no if they are below 265.0%.
If the source is late or silent: The figure as first published counts; if the release is not out within seven days of the date, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
If no
Supply catches up
Expects the triple-digit pace to cool as the year-ago base rises and high margins draw in new supply and substitutes.
If yes
Scarcity holds through 2027
Expects chip scarcity to persist, since only three makers supply sold-out HBM and DRAM capacity through 2027, keeping prices and growth rates high.
50%
NoYes
No position, no money. The crowd, the Call and the machines appear after you lock your number.
— You
— CallOct 22
— Machines2 models
— Readersshows from 5
The trail · since Oct 22
the Call 38, recorded Oct 22machines 2 runsreaders show from 5
The case · 8 people · 2 minutes
Supply catches up2 people argue noScarcity holds through 20276 people argue yes
When memory and semiconductor prices rise significantly above cost due to supply constraints, economic incentives drive multiple paths to increased supply, eventually breaking the cycle and reducing margins.
The demand-supply imbalance in HBM memory creates a classical Economics 101 scenario where constrained supply meets accelerating demand. Customers requesting 5x–6x more capacity than current expansion plans can supply creates a pricing lever that…
What would change the Call
A sudden break in memory chip prices, a change in how customs counts chip exports, or a shift in working days would move this number.
2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.
The thesis
Will memory makers keep earning scarcity profits from AI demand through 2027?
Micron's revenue for the quarter ended September 3, 2026 was $54.2 billion, against $11.3 billion a year earlier. The tests read Micron's next quarter and Korea's chip exports, most of which are memory.