10-year term premium, January average?
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The two sides
The buildout overshoots demand
Expects heavy AI capital spending to keep outpacing capacity, pushing borrowing costs and this measure up.
The buildout keeps outpacing capacity
Expects AI spending growth to slow as capacity catches up, easing pressure on this measure.
Average FRED's daily Kim-Wright 10-year Treasury term premium series for January 2027, as archived on February 10, 2027. Yes if 0.80 percent or higher. Federal Reserve Board, Kim-Wright term premium on a 10-year zero-coupon bond (FRED THREEFYTP10)
The exact question and the full rule
Will the 10-year Treasury term premium (Kim-Wright) average at or above 0.80% over January 2027, as FRED carries it on February 10, 2027?
Average the daily values of the Kim-Wright term premium on a 10-year zero-coupon Treasury bond for January 2027 (FRED series THREEFYTP10) as FRED carries them on February 10, 2027, in its archive ALFRED, and express the average in percent to two decimals. The answer is yes if the average is at or above 0.80%; no if it is below 0.80%.
If the source is late or silent: If on February 10, 2027 FRED does not carry the last business day of January 2027, the test is inconclusive by March 12, 2027, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later revision does not change the reading.