10-year term premium, February average?
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The two sides
The buildout overshoots demand
Expects AI capex to decelerate as capacity catches demand, pushing term premium up through digestion worries.
The buildout keeps outpacing capacity
Expects the capex buildout to keep outpacing capacity, holding term premium below this floor.
Average FRED's daily Kim-Wright 10-year term premium series for February 2027, as carried in ALFRED on March 10, 2027; yes if the average is 0.80 percent or higher. Federal Reserve Board, Kim-Wright term premium on a 10-year zero-coupon bond (FRED THREEFYTP10)
The exact question and the full rule
Will the 10-year Treasury term premium (Kim-Wright) average at or above 0.80% over February 2027, as FRED carries it on March 10, 2027?
Average the daily values of the Kim-Wright term premium on a 10-year zero-coupon Treasury bond for February 2027 (FRED series THREEFYTP10) as FRED carries them on March 10, 2027, in its archive ALFRED, and express the average in percent to two decimals. The answer is yes if the average is at or above 0.80%; no if it is below 0.80%.
If the source is late or silent: If on March 10, 2027 FRED does not carry the last business day of February 2027, the test is inconclusive by April 9, 2027, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later revision does not change the reading.