Semiconductors · Thesis 47 · settles Oct 28 · 2 days

KLA revenue growth 26% or more, September quarter?

revenue growthVs. the same period a year earlier.

4 voices · 4 claims2 sides2 machines

The other numbers are hidden until you lock yours. The readers, the machines and the Call are waiting.

The two sides

If no

SMIC stays the sole confirmed source

No mainland Chinese foundry other than SMIC publicly confirms volume production at a 7nm-class or better logic node before 2027 ends. Export restrictions on…

If yes

Process knowledge diffuses beyond SMIC

State-directed licensing and personnel transfer move SMIC's N+2/N+3 process knowledge to peer fabs like HLMC and Hua Hong, with the same learning feeding…

How it settles

Compare the revenue that KLA reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of KLA (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)

The exact question and the full rule

Did the revenue of KLA for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 26.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?

Compare the revenue that KLA reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 26.0%; no if it is below 26.0%.

If the source is late or silent: If KLA has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.

The case · 4 voices · 2 minutes
SMIC stays the sole confirmed source3 people argue noProcess knowledge diffuses beyond SMIC1 people argue yes
Stronger if no · 3 voices

SMIC stays the sole confirmed source

Olivia MooreMar 9

Western sanctions restricted access to US AI tools in Russia since 2022, and China requires local hosting and censorship compliance. These policy barriers created gaps that local products like Yandex's Alice, Sber's GigaChat, and China's Doubao and…

Stronger if yes · 1 voice

Process knowledge diffuses beyond SMIC

Steel TeamJun 14

Once the manufacturing knowledge behind N+2 and N+3 is transferred to HLMC/Hua Hong and the same learning feeds accelerator programs, no single entity remains the bottleneck, so an entity-list approach aimed at SMIC alone stops controlling the…

The Call's side, the strongest voice against it and what would change it appear after you lock your number.

Open the dossierThe thesis
The dossier · 5 minutes
The machines' reasons

2 models ran this one. Their numbers and reasons appear after you lock yours.

The thesis

Will a second Chinese foundry make 7nm chips by 2027?

Process learning diffuses from SMIC to Hua Hong/HLMC and other domestic fabs, widening the choke point so that entity-list controls aimed at single firms stop determining outcomes.

Results Night · October 27, 20261d 19:08:203 questions settleFollow the night