Open-weight share of top OpenRouter tokens, late February?
7 voices · 7 claims2 sides2 machines
The other numbers are hidden until you lock yours. The readers, the machines and the Call are waiting.
The two sides
Software margins hold or Nvidia's slips below 70%
Expects a closed frontier release from a major US lab to pull token share away from open-weight models.
Margin migrates to chips and power
Expects open-weight models, often cheaper Chinese releases, to keep dominating the token share of OpenRouter's most used models.
Average the daily share of tokens from open-weight models among OpenRouter's most used models, per DeepStack's recording, from February 22 to 28, 2027; yes if at or above 75.0 percent. OpenRouter rankings, daily tokens of the most used models, as recorded by DeepStack
The exact question and the full rule
Will Open-weight models' share of the tokens served by OpenRouter's most used models average at or above 75.0% over the seven days from February 22, 2027 through February 28, 2027?
For each day from February 22, 2027 through February 28, 2027, take OpenRouter's daily ranking of its most used models as first recorded by DeepStack, and divide the tokens (prompt plus completion) of the models whose weights are published (a Hugging Face id in OpenRouter's models list) by the tokens of every model the ranking lists for that day. The answer is yes if the mean of the daily shares is at or above 75.0%; no if it is below 75.0%.
If the source is late or silent: A day with no ranking recorded is left out of the mean. If fewer than five of the seven days carry a share by March 3, 2027, the owner reads the weekly view of the same ranking on OpenRouter's rankings page; if that does not give the share, the test is inconclusive. A later restatement of the ranking does not change a day already recorded.