Will the government's December energy outlook put average wholesale power prices at or over $50 per megawatthour for 2027?
Average the twelve monthly 2027 figures for each of eleven wholesale hub price lines in Table 7a of the EIA's December 8, 2026 outlook, then average those eleven. Yes if 50.00 dollars per megawatthour or above. US Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 7a (U.S. Electricity Industry Overview)
The exact question and the full rule
Will the EIA's December 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook average at or above $50.00 per megawatthour across its eleven wholesale electricity hubs for 2027?
Read the Short-Term Energy Outlook the US Energy Information Administration releases on December 8, 2026 (the archive workbook dec26_base.xlsx, Table 7a, lines ELWHU_TX, ELWHU_CA, ELWHU_NE, ELWHU_NY, ELWHU_PJ, ELWHU_MW, ELWHU_SP, ELWHU_SE, ELWHU_FL, ELWHU_NW and ELWHU_SW) and average the twelve monthly figures for 2027 of each of these eleven wholesale electricity hubs, then average those eleven figures. The answer is yes if the result is at or above $50.00 per megawatthour; no if it is below $50.00 per megawatthour.
If the source is late or silent: If the EIA has not posted the December 2026 workbook in its archive by December 15, 2026, or the table lacks a line or a month the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; a later outlook does not change the reading.
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share
Expects tight gas supply to limit generation growth rather than lift prices, keeping the hub average below this level.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load
Expects AI-driven power demand to keep gas as the marginal fuel, pushing wholesale hub prices up toward or past this level.
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