Part 11A backlog is a promise
Kevin of 100 Bagger Hunting, writing on September 11 about Ilyda, withholds conviction past 2027, because roughly 15% of revenue depends on EU and state tenders whose timing is unknown.
The Backlog Is Not the QuarterPerson
Kevin
Kevin appears in Part 2, Part 4, Part 7, Part 11 of The Buildout. Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 4: AI Spending Has Met Its First Real Bill; Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 11: The Backlog Is Not the Quarter. Argued in Part 11 (A backlog is a promise).
By the numbers
What the stories reported.
Each figure carries its date and source in the story it comes from.
What Kevin argued
On the record, by story.
Paraphrased and attributed, with the date and a link where one exists. DeepStack keeps no score of who was right; the dated tests do that work in the open.
Part 11 · A backlog is a promiseSep 11, 2026
Roughly 15% of revenue is tied directly to EU and state tenders where timing is unknown and awards are not always publicly announced, and a significant portion of private-sector spending is supported by EU or government funding incentives, so the…
Part 11 · A backlog is a promiseSep 11, 2026
Ilyda is currently assessed as a genuinely good business at a boring price, with issues around revenue visibility post-2027; Kevin says his process leans more on future predictability, so he needs a better estimate of the future than just the CEO's…
In The Buildout
Where Kevin appears.
One line per story, from the story itself.
Part 07Lede
At the press conference, Neil Irwin of Axios asked Kevin Warsh what the bond market was telling the Fed.
The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.Part 04Arithmetic sets the test
Kevin Gee’s A Letter a Day, relaying Oscar Hattink’s 2026 letter, puts the burden on the customer.
AI Spending Has Met Its First Real BillPart 02The customer test
And the demand exhibit is a signed contract rather than an inference: Kevin Gee documents Anthropic’s agreement to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for compute through May 2029, roughly $45 billion in total.
SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the ProofPart 02The customer test
Kevin Gee’s wider question is the one the stock cannot answer with a slide: can the market absorb three trillion-dollar cash-burning IPOs in a single window, with OpenAI still to come?
SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof
On the Docket
The tests that name Kevin.
Each is on the Docket and resolves on the Results page.
- OpenAI IPO window
A third trillion-dollar cash-burning listing would test Kevin Gee’s market-capacity concern.
Part 02: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof Pending
Follow
Follow Kevin: one email when a test on Kevin resolves or a new Part names it.
Across the DeepStack reading
How often it comes up.
30 sources, 1547 claims and 140 texts mention Kevin, as of Oct 8, 2026. A count of attention, not a judgment.
Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. What a person argued is reported, not rated; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for anyone.