The Data Desk
Run the numbers yourself.
Every chart here is built from figures reported in The Buildout, and five of them run on live market and economic data. Move the sliders, change the yardstick, pick your entry point. The arithmetic is ours and labeled as ours, and every source is named.
The live macro tape
Five charts that test The Buildout against today’s Treasury, inflation, energy and profit data.
Data Desk · Live · Part 07Rates
The curve, live
Treasury yields from one month to 30 years, today against the day the Fed hiked. Pick a date and see which end of the curve moved.
Live data, updated Oct 8, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Today, Oct 7Fed hike day, Sep 16
Change since Sep 16, basis points. Rising yields shown in red: dearer money for borrowers.
- 3M+8 bp
- 2Y+3 bp
- 5Y+17 bp
- 10Y+27 bp
- 30Y+32 bp
Since Sep 16, the 2-year has moved +3 bp and the 30-year +32 bp. The curve has steepened by 29 basis points: the long end is leading.
Data Desk · Live · Part 08Infrastructure Finance
The real price of patience
Each Treasury yield split into the real return and the inflation the market expects. Set your own inflation assumption and see what a lender actually earns.
Live data, updated Oct 8, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
10-year Treasury5.28%
Real yield the market pays2.92%
Inflation the market prices2.36%
Real yield at your inflation2.92%
Expected inflation, % a year
- Bond market, 10 years2.4%
- Households, next year3.9%
- Households, 3 years3.3%
- Households, 5 years3.0%
At 10 years, Treasuries pay 5.28%, or 2.92% after inflation protection, so the market prices 2.36% inflation. At your 2.36% assumption, a lender earns 2.92% in real terms, the same as inflation-protected bonds pay.
Data Desk · Live · Part 07Rates
Inflation’s last mile
Headline and core consumer prices against the 2% the Fed aims for, with the forecast path. Change the window and see how long the last mile has lasted.
Live data, updated Oct 8, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Headline CPICore CPIForecast
Headline inflation was 3.4% in Aug 2026, core 2.4%. Since Aug 2024, headline has been above 2% in 24 of 24 months. The forecast path reaches 2.7% by Q3 2027.
Data Desk · Live · Part 06Power
The energy bill behind the buildout
Fuel, wholesale power and the metals in the grid, live. Switch the window, then sort by the biggest move or by input.
Live data, updated Oct 8, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Price change over 12 months
- European gas (TTF)€79.16/MWh+142%
- Italian power€218.84/MWh+91%
- Brent crude (spot)$125.44 a barrel+87%
- French power€111.07/MWh+86%
- UK power£156.65/MWh+83%
- German power€167.47/MWh+74%
- Lithium carbonateCN¥124,950/t+70%
- WTI crude (spot)$96.24 a barrel+54%
- Copper$6.14/lb+39%
- Uranium$89.85/lb+13%
- Spanish power€106.90/MWh+8%
- US natural gas$3.03 per MMBtu−9%
Over 12 months, the biggest move is European gas (TTF) at +142%. US natural gas is −9%.
Data Desk · Live · Part 10Markets
Profits ran ahead of the economy
US corporate profits against output per hour, both indexed to 100. Move the starting line and watch the gap Part 10 calls the denominator.
Live data, updated Oct 8, 2026, 6:30 a.m. ET
Corporate profitsOutput per hour
Index, Q4 2022 = 100 (dashed line)
Since Q4 2022 (before ChatGPT), corporate profits are +38.9% and output per hour +9.1%. Profits have grown 4.3 times faster.
Markets and rates
What the market pays for AI profits, and what the bond market charges for patience.
Data Desk · Part 10Markets
Run the denominator
The S&P 500 trades at 19.0 times forward earnings, which sounds reasonable until you set it beside a 10-year Treasury paying 5.31%. Cut the earnings, move the yield, and watch the cushion disappear.
Multiple at today’s prices19.0x
Stocks’ earnings yield5.26%
Cushion over Treasuries−5 bp
- 5-year average19.8xtoday 0.8x cheaper
- 10-year average19.1xtoday 0.1x cheaper
- End of June20.4xtoday 1.4x cheaper
At 19.0x, stocks yield 5.26% on forward profits against 5.31% on the 10-year. Treasuries pay 5 basis points more than stocks. The cushion is gone.
Data Desk · Part 07Rates
The 10-year ladder
The Fed raised its rate on September 16. The long end kept climbing anyway. Here is where the 10-year stands against the levels investors say will break something.
Where it is
Where it breaks
10-year close
The highest close in roughly two decades.
Source: CNBC
The 104 bp climb from the late-February low, as of Sep 24
Real yield: 96 bpExpected inflation: 8 bp
Real 10-year yield vs. the TSCS kill switch
2.85% on Sep 24Kill switch 3.15%: 30 bp away
10-year close, Oct 5: 5.31%. The highest close in roughly two decades.
Data Desk · Part 02Capital Markets
SpaceX: it depends when you bought
Eight weeks, four prices. Pick your entry point and see what the market paid you for believing.
If you bought at
Bought at the IPO ($135.00): up 8.3% at the Aug 12 close of $146.15.
Credit and collateral
The promises lenders are underwriting, measured against the cash that has to keep them.
Data Desk · Part 08Infrastructure Finance
Commitments versus cash
Lenders are underwriting a promise that hyperscaler cash flow will roughly triple by 2030. Pick a yardstick and see how far the commitments already run ahead of it.
Measure everything against
- Hyperscaler earnings, past yearMichael Burryunder $0.4T0.7× cash flow today
- Operating cash flow todayTorsten Slok, Apollo$0.6Tyardstick
- Cash flow needed by 2030Torsten Slok, Apollo$2.0T3.3× cash flow today
- Hyperscaler backlogApollo via DeepValue Capital$2.3T3.8× cash flow today
- Off-balance-sheet commitmentsMichael Burry$2.7T4.5× cash flow today
Measured against operating cash flow today ($0.6T), off-balance-sheet commitments are 4.5 times, and cash flow needed by 2030 are 3.3 times that yardstick.
Data Desk · Part 03Credit
The cloud revenue hurdle
To justify next year’s spending, cloud revenue has to reach about $960 billion. It runs at about $380 billion today. Choose a growth rate and see how long the climb takes.
Years to the hurdle2.8
Run rate today$380B
Booked across three clouds$1.69T
At 40% a year, cloud revenue needs about 2.8 years to grow from $380 billion to $960 billion. The spending it has to justify lands next year.
Spending and power
How fast the money is going out, and what the physical bottleneck now costs.
Data Desk · Part 04Capex
The capex clock
Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta spent $165 billion on capital projects in three months. That is a pace you can watch.
Spent by the four since you opened this page
$0
- Same quarter, three years earlierimplied$33.5B
- Same quarter, a year earlierimplied$88.2B
- Latest quarter$165B
Per day$1.81B
Per second$20,928
New debt as share of capex9% → 32%2024 → Last 12 months
At last quarter’s pace the four spend about $1.8 billion a day, or roughly $20,900 every second.
Data Desk · Part 06Power
What power costs now
Two prices tell the story of the bottleneck: what the grid charges to guarantee capacity, and what a buyer pays to get compute now rather than later.
PJM capacity price, dollars per megawatt-day
- 2024/25 auction$28.92
- 2025/26 auction$269.92
- 2026/27 auction$329.17
PJM capacity cleared at $329.17 a megawatt-day in the latest auction, 11.4 times the $28.92 of two auctions earlier. IEEFA attributes 63% of the jump to data centers.
Data Desk · Part 01Chips
Orders outrun shipments
In a single quarter, Broadcom booked nearly three dollars of AI chip orders for every dollar it shipped. The money to pay for that demand is being raised in tranches.
Broadcom AI semiconductors, one quarter, billions of dollars
- AI chip orders booked$30.0B
- AI chips shipped$10.8B
Broadcom booked $30 billion of AI semiconductor orders in one quarter against $10.8 billion shipped: 2.8 dollars of orders for every dollar delivered.
The AI business
Who is actually making money from the models, and who the agents are coming for.
Data Desk · Part 05AI Labs
The price of the same job
One coding task, three models. On a linear scale the cheapest one all but disappears. Switch to a log scale, then dial up the volume to see a buyer’s monthly bill.
- Claude Opus 5$0.32 per task$320,000a month
- Kimi$0.24 per task$240,000a month
- DeepSeek$0.005 per task$5,000a month
Linear scale: bar length is proportional to price.
At 1,000,000 tasks a month: Claude Opus 5 $320,000, Kimi $240,000, DeepSeek $5,000. The most expensive model costs 64 times the cheapest.
Data Desk · Part 05AI Labs
Two labs, two businesses
OpenAI and Anthropic are usually traded as one bet on AI demand. Their second quarters say they are not the same business.
Quarterly revenue, billions of dollars
Q1 2026Q2 2026
- OpenAI$5.7B$6.7B
- Anthropic$4.8Bimplied$11.6B
OpenAI went from $5.7 billion to $6.7 billion. Anthropic reached $11.6 billion, from an implied $4.8 billion.
Data Desk · Part 09Agents
Winners and losers at the first checkout
From the day Meta launched its shopping agent to October 2, the market sorted companies into two piles: the ones building agents, and the ones whose customers agents might reroute.
Change in closing price, Sep 8 to Oct 2, 2026
- Advanced Micro Devices+33%
- Meta+18%
- S&P 5000%
- Expedia−11%
- Netflix−14%
- Bank of America−14%
- Intuit−16%
- Planet Fitness−17%
- Booking Holdings−18%
- Comcast−19%
Advanced Micro Devices rose 33% and Meta 18%. Booking fell 18%, Comcast 19% and Planet Fitness 17%. The S&P 500 was flat.
The tape, expanded
Every number in The Buildout.
40 figures from 10 stories, each with its date and context. Filter by beat, or search for a company, a rate or a name.
- 19.0xS&P 500 forward multipleFactSet, as of Oct 2, 2026Part 10 · Markets
- 29.5%Expected Q3 earnings growthFactSet, as of Oct 2, 2026Part 10 · Markets
- $250BHyperscaler high-grade bondsApollo presentation via Leyla Kunimoto, through August 2026Part 10 · MarketsLeyla Kunimoto
- 5.31%10-year Treasury yieldCNBC, closing yield on Oct 5, 2026Part 10 · Markets
- 18%Meta stock gainClosing prices, Financial Modeling Prep, Sep 8-Oct 2, 2026Part 09 · AgentsMeta
- 33%AMD stock gainClosing prices, Financial Modeling Prep, Sep 8-Oct 2, 2026Part 09 · AgentsAMD
- 3%Paid consumer AI adoptionMoses Sternstein, first quarter estimatePart 09 · AgentsMoses Sternstein
- 61%-70%Booking in AI recommendationsOguz Erkan, September 2026Part 09 · AgentsOguz Erkan
- 227 bpsOracle five-year CDSRecord that week, according to Seeking AlphaPart 08 · Infrastructure FinanceOracle
- 1,146 bpsCCC spread over TreasuriesSeptember 28, 2026; FREDPart 08 · Infrastructure Finance
- $2THyperscaler cash-flow targetTorsten Slok’s 2030 assumptionPart 08 · Infrastructure FinanceTorsten Slok
- $2.7TOff-balance-sheet commitmentsBurry estimate across five hyperscalersPart 08 · Infrastructure Finance
- 5.18%10-year Treasury yieldFRED, six trading days after September 16Part 07 · Rates
- $1.97TFederal deficitTSCS, cumulative through August 2026Part 07 · RatesTSCS
- 8.25%CleanSpark note couponJunkBondInvestor, September 18, 2026Part 07 · RatesJunkBondInvestor
- $2.3THyperscaler backlogApollo via DeepValue Capital, September 2026Part 07 · RatesDeepValue Capital
- $20–25MNebius one-to-three-year priceMichael Burry, August 12 trading postPart 06 · PowerNebius
- $40–50MNebius six-month priceMichael Burry, August 12 trading postPart 06 · PowerNebius
- 23 GWNVL72 deployment needDaniel Romero, 2027 estimate at full usePart 06 · PowerDaniel Romero
- -7.9%Construction ex-data centersMichael Burry citing Apollo, June year over yearPart 06 · PowerMichael Burry
- 142%Anthropic quarterly growthQuarter on quarter, Q2 2026Part 05 · AI LabsAnthropic
- 18%OpenAI quarterly growthQuarter on quarter, Q2 2026Part 05 · AI LabsOpenAI
- $20.9BOpenAI 2025 lossSteve Eisman; 2025Part 05 · AI LabsOpenAI
- $559MAnthropic adjusted incomeMichael Spencer; preliminary June quarter 2026Part 05 · AI LabsAnthropic
- $800BCombined annual capexFour companies, disclosed in late JulyPart 04 · Capex
- $165BQuarterly hyperscaler capexProf G Markets; three months, August 4Part 04 · CapexProf G Markets
- -$6BAlphabet Q2 free cash flowHayden Capital; Q2, first negative since 2004 IPOPart 04 · CapexAlphabet
- $3.5T2026–30 hyperscaler capexOscar Hattink via Kevin Gee; 2026–2030Part 04 · CapexKevin Gee
- $500BWall Street-arranged chip facilityHeadlines, August 12, 2026Part 03 · Credit
- $250BNvidia Ohio-campus guaranteeVitaliy Katsenelson, August 6, 2026Part 03 · CreditNvidia
- 21%Modeled compute internal returnMarket Sentiment, August 8, 2026Part 03 · CreditMarket Sentiment
- 6%AI paper investment-grade shareJunkBondInvestor, August 9, 2026Part 03 · CreditJunkBondInvestor
- $75BIPO proceedsRaised June 12 at near $1.75T valuationPart 02 · Capital Markets
- 54%Peak-to-low drawdown$225.64 to $104.83 by early AugustPart 02 · Capital Markets
- 0.4 GWCompute deployedKakashii’s first-quarter reading, August 2026Part 02 · Capital MarketsKakashii
- $1.25BMonthly Anthropic contractThrough May 2029, as documented by Kevin GeePart 02 · Capital MarketsAnthropic
- $38BApollo debtApollo transaction in late May, described by Michael BurryPart 01 · ChipsMichael Burry
- $35BAI XPU trancheApollo and Blackstone first tranche; Invest In Assets, ten weeks laterPart 01 · ChipsBlackstone
- 20GWBroadcom computeBroadcom-designed capacity promised through 2028; Invest In AssetsPart 01 · ChipsBroadcom
- $30BQuarterly AI ordersBroadcom orders booked in one quarter; Invest In Assets, mid-2026Part 01 · ChipsBroadcom
How to read these charts
- Reported figures come from the stories and carry the source and date shown under each chart.
- Implied values are hatched and labeled. They are derived from a reported growth rate, never guessed.
- Calculators and scenarios are DeepStack arithmetic on reported figures. They show sensitivities, not forecasts.
- Live charts carry a Live tag and the time of the last update. They are refreshed from U.S. Treasury; BLS; Federal Reserve H.15, Federal Reserve Board, BLS, BEA, DOL, Census Bureau, University of Michigan, OMB, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Cboe, EIA and IMF via FRED; Trading Economics for household inflation expectations, European gas, European power, uranium, lithium and forecast paths each time the site is rebuilt, not tick by tick.
- Not advice. The Data Desk is analysis and opinion, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.