Person

TSCS

TSCS appears in Part 7, Part 10 of The Buildout. Part 7: The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator. Argued in Part 7 (A missing buyer), Part 7 (Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%), Part 7 (Voices that cross sides).

In 2 parts of The Buildout: Part 10, Part 07 · Updated Oct 8, 2026

By the numbers

What the stories reported.

Each figure carries its date and source in the story it comes from.

What TSCS argued

On the record, by story.

Paraphrased and attributed, with the date and a link where one exists. DeepStack keeps no score of who was right; the dated tests do that work in the open.

  1. Part 07 · Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%Sep 21, 2026

    On 16 September the US 10-year inflation-protected bond paid 2.68% over inflation, a level last seen on 26 November 2008, which led the creator to assume something was breaking; after a week of looking he says he could not find a crisis.

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  2. Part 07 · Debt: 99% of GDP, up from 35%Sep 21, 2026

    Auction and volatility evidence does not look like a crisis: the 10 September 30-year drew 2.61 times bids with dealers taking 2.2%, the lowest dealer share in the 14 years of records the creator could pull against a next-lowest of 5.9%, and the…

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  3. Part 07 · A missing buyerSep 16, 2026

    The creator argues the front end cannot cap the long end: a hike is only about 4/10 of a percent of receipts and mostly lands as income with people who spend it, Treasury buybacks manage volatility rather than level, and the buyers who used to…

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  4. Part 07 · A missing buyerAug 29, 2026

    Kevin Warsh is a pretend hawk rather than a constrained one, meaning he talks tough on inflation while avoiding costly action, and this position can be falsified by a rate hike on 16 September.

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  5. Part 07 · Voices that cross sidesAug 29, 2026

    The Federal Reserve faces a trap: if it hikes rates it loses control of the long end because it feeds an annual interest bill approaching $1 trillion, but if it cuts despite 3.4% inflation it also loses the long end, creating a frustrating setup…

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

  6. Part 07 · Voices that cross sidesSep 16, 2026

    The creator's forward view is that oil and long yields keep rising until stocks fall, because the S&P is the only release valve left: the bond-market valve that worked in April 2025 is the one the buybacks are designed to keep shut.

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed. Who is on each side Source

In The Buildout

Where TSCS appears.

One line per story, from the story itself.

  4. Part 07The calm is real

    TSCS warns that thin trading in inflation-protected bonds makes the split less precise; a Fed staff model that strips out that illiquidity puts it closer to 70/30 than 90/10.

    The Fed Hiked. The Long End Still Climbed.

On the Docket

The tests that name TSCS.

Each is on the Docket and resolves on the Results page.

  1. At 5.5% 10-year

    A 5.5% Treasury yield tests Howell’s turning-point history against TSCS’s warning that the long end will keep rising.

    Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator Pending

Across the DeepStack reading

How often it comes up.

604 claims and 45 texts mention TSCS, as of Oct 8, 2026. A count of attention, not a judgment.

Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. What a person argued is reported, not rated; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for anyone.