The series
Ten investigations into who pays for the AI build-out, who profits, and what breaks first.
The Buildout · Part 10Markets
The S&P 500 looks cheaper because profits surged. But those profits depend on AI spending, chip values and debt that may be inflating the denominator while raising the discount rate.
19.0xS&P 500 forward multiple
The Buildout · Part 09Agentic commerce
Meta’s Muse has inserted itself between shoppers and sellers. The first bill is coming due for businesses paid by customer inertia.
18%Meta stock gain
The Buildout · Part 08Infrastructure Finance
The shortage of power, chips and data-center capacity supports lenders today. But every new dollar also brings the glut that can wreck their collateral.
227 bpsOracle five-year CDS
The Buildout · Part 07Rates
The rate rise did not tame long yields. The bill for AI’s capital binge is arriving through bonds, deficits and the investors now setting the price of duration.
5.18%10-year Treasury yield
The Buildout · Part 06Power
Electricity is the constraint, but the premium belongs to whoever can secure permission, build on time and turn a megawatt into revenue before demand catches up.
$20–25MNebius one-to-three-year price
The Buildout · Part 05AI Labs
OpenAI is cutting prices while Anthropic still monetizes enterprise coding. The difference matters because hyperscalers, lenders and investors have priced the pair as one AI bet.
142%Anthropic quarterly growth
The Buildout · Part 04Capex
Hyperscaler capital budgets are still climbing. The market has started charging for them, rewarding cash-backed returns and punishing faith.
$800BCombined annual capex
The Buildout · Part 03Credit
AI demand may be real. The more dangerous question is who is financing the machines, and how quickly lenders can change their minds.
$500BWall Street-arranged chip facility
The Buildout · Part 02Capital Markets
SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO puts AI infrastructure inside a profitable Starlink shell. The capacity looks plausible; the operating proof has not reached the meter.
$75BIPO proceeds
The Buildout · Part 01Chips
Google paid roughly double for Nvidia capacity while private credit financed a $35bn compute platform. The chips are scarce; the returns may be anything but.
$38BApollo debt
