Part 10A cheap top
Michael Burry did the opposite: his trading post said he bought more far out-of-the-money MetLife puts expiring in 2029, acting on an expected AI boom-to-bust thesis.
The Bubble Is in the DenominatorPerson · Cassandra Unchained
Michael Burry
Michael Burry appears in Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 6, Part 8, Part 10 of The Buildout. Part 1: Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.; Part 2: SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the Proof; Part 3: The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 8: AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator. Argued in Part 1 (Manufactured), Part 3 (1999 capex plus 2008 credit), Part 6 (Scarcity as a warning), Part 8 (Guarantees, not faith), Part 8 (The cash has to triple), Part 10 (A long end nobody caps), Part 10 (A model, not a price).
By the numbers
What the stories reported.
Each figure carries its date and source in the story it comes from.
- $38BApollo debtApollo transaction in late May, described by Michael Burry · Part 01
- $20–25MNebius one-to-three-year priceMichael Burry, August 12 trading post · Part 06
- $40–50MNebius six-month priceMichael Burry, August 12 trading post · Part 06
- -7.9%Construction ex-data centersMichael Burry citing Apollo, June year over year · Part 06
What Michael Burry argued
On the record, by story.
Paraphrased and attributed, with the date and a link where one exists. DeepStack keeps no score of who was right; the dated tests do that work in the open.
Part 10 · A model, not a priceOct 5, 2026
Acting on the expected AI-boom-to-bust thesis, the creator bought more MetLife (MET) 2029 puts far out of the money.
Part 10 · A model, not a priceOct 1, 2026
The residual-value numbers on Nvidia's slide are not actual second-hand prices but the present value of current rental income run out over 8 years according to a continuous discounted cash flow model built on assumptions like 75% utilization and a…
Part 10 · A long end nobody capsOct 1, 2026
The entire extra present value shown for the oldest GPU (A100) in the model is attributable entirely to years 7 and 8 being added into the depreciation model, so the A100's current 25% ratio comes solely from those added years.
Part 10 · A long end nobody capsSep 28, 2026
Manufacturers such as Nvidia and hyperscalers such as Oracle and Google Cloud are offering residual value guarantees for chips not because they want to but because lenders require them, given that chip depreciation is a very real problem following…
Part 08 · The cash has to tripleSep 19, 2026
Most analysts covering the former software/social-media/AdTech companies now recast as hyperscalers have never had to model maintenance capital expenditure, and most still are not doing it, or not doing it well.
AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity Who is on each side Source
Part 08 · The cash has to tripleSep 19, 2026
Across the five hyperscalers, uncommenced, non-cancelable data-center leases and purchase commitments together total roughly $2.7 trillion in off-balance-sheet contractual commitments as of the disclosed filing dates, with the total potentially…
AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity Who is on each side Source
Part 08 · Guarantees, not faithSep 24, 2026
Meta's data center JV structure shows that the parties closest to the assets do not believe the value will hold: lenders would not bear residual value risk without protection, so Meta issued a residual value guarantee of up to $28 billion on…
AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity Who is on each side Source
Part 08 · Guarantees, not faithSep 24, 2026
Microsoft's raising of its buildings-and-improvements depreciation useful life ceiling from 15 to 25 years is likely a move of convenience that lets it keep tripled data center leases classified as operating rather than finance leases, since ASC…
AI Lenders Are Financing the End of Scarcity Who is on each side Source
Part 06 · Scarcity as a warningAug 21, 2026
GDP growth is heavily reliant on the data center buildout, evidenced by private non-residential construction excluding data centers falling 7.9% year over year in June.
Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves. Who is on each side Source
Part 03 · 1999 capex plus 2008 creditAug 12, 2026
Nebius extended its server depreciation schedule from four years to five this year even though its own deal pricing implies roughly 50 percent annual decay; customers that would not quit depreciating are what extended the bust twenty-five years ago.
The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not. Who is on each side Source
Part 03 · 1999 capex plus 2008 creditAug 12, 2026
Nebius's own disclosed terms show compute in backwardation: 20 to 25 million dollars per megawatt on one-to-three-year contracts against 40 to 50 million per megawatt for capacity of up to six months; buyers paying twice the rate for near-term use…
The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not. Who is on each side Source
Part 01 · ManufacturedJul 24, 2026
Much and possibly most of current and future AI compute demand is not end-customer demand; the majority of future revenues are financed through a circular off-balance-sheet arrangement.
Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile. Who is on each side Source
Part 01 · ManufacturedJul 9, 2026
NVIDIA's revenue growth is only mostly real because circular financing sustains marginal AI compute demand above market-rate levels, and resolution of the power bottleneck will reduce revenue recurrence and compress the scarcity premium in margins…
Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile. Who is on each side Source
In The Buildout
Where Michael Burry appears.
One line per story, from the story itself.
Part 08Who writes the checks
Michael Burry attacks the forecast from underneath.
AI Lenders Are Financing the End of ScarcityPart 08What lenders actually own
Michael Burry’s count is the largest warning sign.
AI Lenders Are Financing the End of ScarcityPart 06Lede
Michael Burry read that spread in an August 12 trading post and gave it a credit analyst’s name: backwardation.
Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.Part 06The megawatt premium
Michael Burry, citing Apollo’s Torsten Slok, says private non-residential construction excluding data centers fell 7.9% year over year in June.
Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.Part 03Lede
Nebius jumped 34 percent even though Michael Burry had just added it to his short book.
The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.Part 03Debt is the product
Michael Burry pushes the same concern down into the balance sheet.
The Machines Will Work. The Debt Might Not.Part 02The customer test
Michael Burry’s July 8 piece says marginal AI-compute demand is sustained by circular financing at above-market terms, leaving the marginal buyer uneconomic without subsidy.
SpaceX Is Funding an AI Bet Before the ProofPart 01Private credit, public appetite
Michael Burry, the hedge-fund legend, sees that fragility everywhere.
Nvidia’s Demand Is Real. Its Financing Is Fragile.
Across the DeepStack reading
How often it comes up.
12 sources, 1070 claims and 102 texts mention Michael Burry, as of Oct 8, 2026. A count of attention, not a judgment.
Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. What a person argued is reported, not rated; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for anyone.