Person

Michael Spencer

Michael Spencer appears in Part 5, Part 6, Part 9, Part 10 of The Buildout. Part 5: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business; Part 6: Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.; Part 9: Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.; Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator. Argued in Part 5 (Anthropic: not yet), Part 5 (OpenAI: commoditized), Part 5 (Voices that cross sides), Part 9 (Still a demo), Part 9 (The owner of the agent), Part 10 (Not the customers, yet).

In 4 parts of The Buildout: Part 10, Part 09, Part 06, Part 05 · Updated Oct 8, 2026

By the numbers

What the stories reported.

Each figure carries its date and source in the story it comes from.

What Michael Spencer argued

On the record, by story.

Paraphrased and attributed, with the date and a link where one exists. DeepStack keeps no score of who was right; the dated tests do that work in the open.

  1. Part 10 · Not the customers, yetSep 11, 2026

    The creator reads declining frontier model usage as a sign that enterprises, startups and power users are becoming more price conscious even as token prices fall, citing Ramp's index showing effective price per million tokens down 41% to $0.68 from…

    The Bubble Is in the Denominator Who is on each side Source

  2. Part 10 · Not the customers, yetOct 1, 2026

    A lot of the tasks agents are being asked to do won't translate into real economic value, despite requiring massive compute, which is actually how the entire AI thesis could break given the debt behind the AI infrastructure build-out.

    The Bubble Is in the Denominator Who is on each side Source

  3. Part 09 · Still a demoSep 29, 2026

    Since Meta Muse optimizes how consumers clean up digital subscriptions they no longer care about, at scale it could implode subscriptions and accelerate subscription fatigue further in 2027, significantly hurting independent media providers such as…

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It. Who is on each side Source

  4. Part 09 · Still a demoSep 29, 2026

    Since Muse's release, it is claimed that consumers who gave the AI access to banking and credit card statements found it to be a great budgeting coach, leading them to cancel unnecessary subscriptions, and the creator expects a huge subscription…

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It. Who is on each side Source

  5. Part 09 · The owner of the agentSep 8, 2026

    Generative AI's impact on the macro economy and labor market is a serious concern: higher inflation, less hiring, more anxiety, and a lack of ROI compared to the debt, capex and resulting AI bubble, with higher earnings masking dangerous…

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It. Who is on each side Source

  6. Part 09 · The owner of the agentSep 14, 2026

    The creator is not sure a future AI monopoly warning about human-extinction risk will be well received given how unpopular AI and Silicon Valley currently are in America, Europe and elsewhere, and says more will be known once there is more data on…

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It. Who is on each side

  7. Part 05 · OpenAI: commoditizedAug 20, 2026

    OpenAI grew revenue only about 18% quarter over quarter in Q2 2026 (from $5.7B to $6.7B), while Anthropic grew 142% quarter over quarter to $11.6B, showing OpenAI is slowing at the worst possible time just before its IPO.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  8. Part 05 · OpenAI: commoditizedAug 20, 2026

    Anthropic reported preliminary Q2 revenue of $11.5 billion and a projected adjusted operating profit of $559 million, and by the time it goes public it will be comfortably profitable, unlike SpaceX which spent $18.37 billion in capex against just…

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  9. Part 05 · Anthropic: not yetAug 20, 2026

    Anthropic's ARR grew from approximately $700 million in August 2024 to its current level, a roughly 93x increase in about two years.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  10. Part 05 · Anthropic: not yetAug 20, 2026

    Cognition's Devin achieved a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate and a $40 billion valuation in under two years, making it exceptional among AI startups for this pace of revenue growth.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  11. Part 05 · Voices that cross sidesAug 20, 2026

    As Devin and similar tools scale, they drive increased token usage of Anthropic's models, creating a compounding benefit to Anthropic.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

  12. Part 05 · Voices that cross sidesSep 10, 2026

    Europe's dream of sovereign AI leadership is fading because Mistral, despite raising 3.5 billion dollars at a 21 billion euro valuation, has been unable to compete with the United States or China in open-source AI models.

    OpenAI and Anthropic Are Not the Same Business Who is on each side Source

In The Buildout

Where Michael Spencer appears.

One line per story, from the story itself.

  1. Part 10Who writes the checks

    Michael Spencer adds a price warning: Ramp’s index showed what customers pay per million tokens down 41% from its March peak, to $0.68.

    The Bubble Is in the Denominator

  2. Part 09The first bill

    Michael Spencer, who covers the AI industry daily, expects about 1 million users by November, doubts the ratio of downloads to users and warns that Muse’s compute bill could crater Meta’s free cash flow in 2027.

    Habit Was the Moat. Agents Are Draining It.

  3. Part 06Politics sets the price

    Michael Spencer relays polling that puts opposition to large data centers near people’s homes at 70% to 75%, with more than half of Americans supporting a national moratorium.

    Power Doesn’t Depreciate. Its Premium Moves.

Across the DeepStack reading

How often it comes up.

1643 claims and 152 texts mention Michael Spencer, as of Oct 8, 2026. A count of attention, not a judgment.

Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. What a person argued is reported, not rated; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for anyone.