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Book · 7 contracts · 14 expiries
The capex bill
The four hyperscalers' spending, the cash it outruns, the servers Taiwan ships them and the price of the money that pays for it.
The theses it settles
The contracts
The next expiry of each; a strike opens its question, the title its whole ladder.
AG30y · settles Dec 135 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseshyperscalers, utilities and data-center developers refinancing or issuing fixed-rate debt
Loses if it fallsbanks and insurers that hold floating-rate assets against fixed liabilities
AG30 · settles Dec 10 · +2 later expiries44 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesissuers rolling AI capex debt, such as hyperscaler bond programs and data-center ABS sponsors
Loses if it fallsborrowers who locked fixed rates on data-center construction loans through swaps
AG02 · settles Oct 29 · +1 later expiry2 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseshyperscaler bondholders, as cash runs short of the spend and borrowing rises
Loses if it fallssuppliers whose orders need the spend to keep outrunning cash
AG06b · settles Nov 15 · +4 later expiries19 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesUS hyperscalers and neoclouds paying for imported servers, tariffs included
Loses if it fallsTaiwan server assemblers and their lenders (Quanta, Wiwynn, Wistron, Hon Hai)
AG01 · settles Mar 1125 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseshyperscaler shareholders and bondholders funding the spend
Loses if it fallschip, server, network and power-equipment suppliers whose order books ride the spend
AG22 · settles Mar 1125 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseshyperscaler shareholders whose margins absorb the depreciation of the buildout
Loses if it fallslessors and lenders whose collateral holds value only if the useful lives are right
AG02 · settles Mar 1125 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseshyperscaler bondholders, as cash runs short of the spend and borrowing rises
Loses if it fallssuppliers whose orders need the spend to keep outrunning cash
Who sits on each side
The commercial parties a print hurts, on each side: the ones who would hedge with a contract on it.
- Capital spending of the four hyperscalers, growth from a year earlier
Loses if it rises- hyperscaler shareholders and bondholders funding the spend
- cloud buyers facing higher prices to recover it
Loses if it falls- chip, server, network and power-equipment suppliers whose order books ride the spend
- data-center builders and their lenders
- Capital spending over operating cash of the four hyperscalers
Loses if it rises- hyperscaler bondholders, as cash runs short of the spend and borrowing rises
- equity holders counting on buybacks
Loses if it falls- suppliers whose orders need the spend to keep outrunning cash
- private-credit lenders to data-center developers
- Taiwan's exports of computers and servers to the United States, growth from a year earlier
Loses if it rises- US hyperscalers and neoclouds paying for imported servers, tariffs included
- server assemblers building in Mexico and the United States, whose share Taiwan's lines take
Loses if it falls- Taiwan server assemblers and their lenders (Quanta, Wiwynn, Wistron, Hon Hai)
- Taiwan's air cargo carriers and forwarders moving racks to the United States
- Depreciation over revenue of the four hyperscalers
Loses if it rises- hyperscaler shareholders whose margins absorb the depreciation of the buildout
Loses if it falls- lessors and lenders whose collateral holds value only if the useful lives are right
- 10-year Treasury term premium (Kim-Wright)
Loses if it rises- issuers rolling AI capex debt, such as hyperscaler bond programs and data-center ABS sponsors
- holders of long-duration bonds and data-center real estate valued on long cash flows
Loses if it falls- borrowers who locked fixed rates on data-center construction loans through swaps
- money funds and short-duration lenders whose relative carry shrinks
- 10-year Treasury yield, monthly average
Loses if it rises- hyperscalers, utilities and data-center developers refinancing or issuing fixed-rate debt
- holders of long Treasuries and of data-center real estate valued on long cash flows
Loses if it falls- banks and insurers that hold floating-rate assets against fixed liabilities
- borrowers who swapped to fixed rates on construction loans