Season 0 · eight books, 41 contracts
Each book bundles the numbers that settle one argument about the money behind AI: what they print, when, and who gains on each side. Every other question is in the archive on Markets.
Chosen by rule: the writers’ disagreement, how soon it settles, who gains on each side.
114 disagreements among the writers on its thesis; settles Dec 1
Settles Nov 6; 18 disagreements among the writers on its thesis
Settles Nov 1; 7 disagreements among the writers on its thesis
Settles Nov 2; 4 kinds of hedger on its two sides
Settles Nov 6; 3 kinds of hedger on its two sides
The four hyperscalers' spending, the cash it outruns, the servers Taiwan ships them and the price of the money that pays for it.
The software basket's revenue and the entry-level jobs AI reaches first: whether seat-priced software keeps growing.
Memory spot prices, Korea's chip exports and the revenue of the equipment, storage and network-hardware makers: whether the parts AI runs short of stay scarce.
Data-center construction and the revenue of Taiwan's AI hardware chain and of the power and cooling suppliers: whether the buildings fill as fast as they go up.
Payrolls, real growth, output per hour, the share of businesses using AI and the support jobs it can replace: whether the economy grows without hiring.
The hyperscalers' lease obligations, what a used GPU fetches as collateral and the term premium of the money underneath.
Power sold in the data-center states, the grid's capacity price, the household bill, gas at Henry Hub and the power producers' revenue: who pays for the load.
What an hour of a GPU and a million tokens cost, and how much of the market open models take: the prices that decide who earns the margin.