Business support jobs growth, October?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesoutsourcers and call-center operators paying more to staff seats
Loses if it fallscustomer-service agent vendors whose sales assume seats are cut
Book · 6 contracts · 8 expiries
Work and output
Payrolls, real growth, output per hour, the share of businesses using AI and the support jobs it can replace: whether the economy grows without hiring.
The theses it settles
The contracts
The next expiry of each; a strike opens its question, the title its whole ladder.
US productivity growth, Q3?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesstaffing and outsourcing firms that price per head
Loses if it fallsenterprise software sellers and investors priced for AI-driven margin expansion
US real GDP growth, Q3?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesholders of long Treasuries
Loses if it fallscyclical lenders and equity holders priced for growth
US firms using AI 26.0% or more, November 5 survey?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesstaffing firms and business-process outsourcers billing by the hour
Loses if it fallsAI software vendors and model labs whose revenue plans assume broad business uptake
US payroll growth in October?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesemployers bidding for scarce labor
Loses if it fallsstaffing and payroll processors billing per head
US firms using AI 26.5% or more, November 19 survey?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesstaffing firms and business-process outsourcers billing by the hour
Loses if it fallsAI software vendors and model labs whose revenue plans assume broad business uptake
Who sits on each side
The commercial parties a print hurts, on each side: the ones who would hedge with a contract on it.
- US nonfarm labor productivity growthLoses if it rises
- staffing and outsourcing firms that price per head
- holders of long Treasuries if faster growth lifts real rates
Loses if it falls- enterprise software sellers and investors priced for AI-driven margin expansion
- employers whose wage settlements assume productivity gains
- Share of US businesses using AILoses if it rises
- staffing firms and business-process outsourcers billing by the hour
Loses if it falls- AI software vendors and model labs whose revenue plans assume broad business uptake
- US nonfarm payroll employment growthLoses if it rises
- employers bidding for scarce labor
- holders of long Treasuries if hiring keeps rates high
Loses if it falls- staffing and payroll processors billing per head
- consumer lenders whose losses track job losses
- US real GDP growth from a year earlierLoses if it rises
- holders of long Treasuries
- importers paying for a stronger dollar
Loses if it falls- cyclical lenders and equity holders priced for growth
- issuers refinancing into a slowdown
- US employment in business support services, growth from a year earlierLoses if it rises
- outsourcers and call-center operators paying more to staff seats
Loses if it falls- customer-service agent vendors whose sales assume seats are cut
- call-center operators' lenders