← All the books
Book · 2 contracts · 4 expiries
Software under pressure
The software basket's revenue and the entry-level jobs AI reaches first: whether seat-priced software keeps growing.
The theses it settles
The contracts
The next expiry of each; a strike opens its question, the title its whole ladder.
AG28 · settles Nov 6 · +1 later expiry10 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesAI software sellers whose case rests on automating entry-level tasks
Loses if it fallsstudent lenders and colleges whose repayment and enrollment depend on young graduates finding work
AG25 · settles Nov 5 · +1 later expiry9 days
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesenterprises buying seats and usage, who pay more
Loses if it fallssoftware vendors and their lenders
Who sits on each side
The commercial parties a print hurts, on each side: the ones who would hedge with a contract on it.
- Revenue growth of the software basket
Loses if it rises- enterprises buying seats and usage, who pay more
Loses if it falls- software vendors and their lenders
- investors in seat-based software
- Employment-population ratio, ages 20 to 24
Loses if it rises- AI software sellers whose case rests on automating entry-level tasks
Loses if it falls- student lenders and colleges whose repayment and enrollment depend on young graduates finding work
- consumer brands and landlords that sell to young adults