← All the booksBook · 9 contracts · 18 expiries
Scarce parts Memory spot prices, Korea's chip exports and the revenue of the equipment, storage and network-hardware makers: whether the parts AI runs short of stay scarce.
The theses it settles
The book’s index The chance its theses’ side wins, the mean over its 9 front contracts.
Its thesis wins
Settled so far: 0 for, 0 against.
The contracts The next expiry of each; a strike opens its question, the title its whole ladder.
AG06a · settles Nov 1 · +2 later expiries 5 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises buyers of memory paying contract prices: PC, phone and server makers
Loses if it falls Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and their equipment and materials suppliers
AG32 · settles Oct 28 36 h
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises chipmakers paying for tools
Loses if it falls equipment makers and their suppliers
AG08 · settles Dec 1 · +3 later expiries 35 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises PC, phone and server makers buying DRAM and NAND
Loses if it falls memory makers (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) and their module houses
AG08 · settles Dec 1 · +3 later expiries 35 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises PC, phone and server makers buying DRAM and NAND
Loses if it falls memory makers (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) and their module houses
AG06a · settles Dec 1 35 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises buyers of memory paying contract prices: PC, phone and server makers
Loses if it falls Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and their equipment and materials suppliers
AG06a · settles Dec 1 35 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises buyers of memory paying contract prices: PC, phone and server makers
Loses if it falls Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and their equipment and materials suppliers
AG33 · settles Nov 4 · +1 later expiry 8 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises hyperscalers buying switches and optics
Loses if it falls network and optics makers
AG35 · settles Feb 10 106 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises cloud buyers of drives and flash
Loses if it falls drive and flash makers
AG06a · settles Feb 1 97 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises buyers of memory paying contract prices: PC, phone and server makers
Loses if it falls Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and their equipment and materials suppliers
Who sits on each side The commercial parties a print hurts, on each side: the ones who would hedge with a contract on it.
Korea's semiconductor exports, growth from a year earlier Loses if it rises buyers of memory paying contract prices: PC, phone and server makers hyperscalers and accelerator makers buying high-bandwidth memory Loses if it falls Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and their equipment and materials suppliers Korean lenders and holders of won assets that lean on chip export receipts DRAM and NAND spot price Loses if it rises PC, phone and server makers buying DRAM and NAND hyperscalers and neoclouds buying server memory Loses if it falls memory makers (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) and their module houses distributors holding memory inventory Revenue growth of the chip-equipment basket Loses if it rises chipmakers paying for tools foundry customers paying for capacity Loses if it falls equipment makers and their suppliers regions courting fabs Revenue growth of the AI network hardware basket Loses if it rises hyperscalers buying switches and optics Loses if it falls network and optics makers contract manufacturers Revenue growth of the storage basket Loses if it rises cloud buyers of drives and flash Loses if it falls drive and flash makers their lenders