Book · 6 contracts · 12 expiries

The price of compute

What an hour of a GPU and a million tokens cost, and how much of the market open models take: the prices that decide who earns the margin.

The theses it settles

The contracts

The next expiry of each; a strike opens its question, the title its whole ladder.

AG19 · settles Dec 1 · +1 later expiry35 days

Flagship AI token price, late November?

$3.80/M-tokens or more $4/M-tokens or more $4.20/M-tokens or more

Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal

Loses if it risesapplication companies and enterprises buying tokens by the million

Loses if it fallsAI labs selling API access (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI)

AG04 · settles Dec 1 · +2 later expiries35 days

H100 rental price index, late November?

$2.90/GPU-hr or more $3.10/GPU-hr or more $3.30/GPU-hr or more

Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal

Loses if it risesAI labs and startups renting GPU capacity by the hour

Loses if it fallsneoclouds leasing H100, H200 and B200 fleets (CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, Crusoe)

AG04 · settles Dec 1 · +2 later expiries35 days

H200 rental price index, late November?

$5.90/GPU-hr or more $6.30/GPU-hr or more $6.80/GPU-hr or more

Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal

Loses if it risesAI labs and startups renting GPU capacity by the hour

Loses if it fallsneoclouds leasing H100, H200 and B200 fleets (CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, Crusoe)

AG20 · settles Mar 1125 days

Open-weight share of top OpenRouter tokens, late February?

75% or more 77.5% or more 80% or more

Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal

Loses if it risesclosed US labs selling API access

Loses if it fallsChinese labs and open-weight makers (Alibaba's Qwen, Moonshot, Z.ai and others)

AG04 · settles Jan 1 · +1 later expiry66 days

B200 rental price index, late December?

$9.40/GPU-hr or more $9.80/GPU-hr or more $10.20/GPU-hr or more

Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal

Loses if it risesAI labs and startups renting GPU capacity by the hour

Loses if it fallsneoclouds leasing H100, H200 and B200 fleets (CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, Crusoe)

AG19 · settles Jan 166 days

Flagship AI token price $3.90 or more, late December?

Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal

Loses if it risesapplication companies and enterprises buying tokens by the million

Loses if it fallsAI labs selling API access (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI)

Who sits on each side

The commercial parties a print hurts, on each side: the ones who would hedge with a contract on it.

GPU rental price index (Ornn H100, H200, B200)
Loses if it rises
- AI labs and startups renting GPU capacity by the hour
- inference platforms selling tokens on fixed prices over rented GPUs
Loses if it falls
- neoclouds leasing H100, H200 and B200 fleets (CoreWeave, Lambda, Nebius, Crusoe)
- lenders holding loans secured by GPUs and their rental income
Flagship AI model token price
Loses if it rises
- application companies and enterprises buying tokens by the million
- coding-agent and chat apps reselling model output at flat prices
Loses if it falls
- AI labs selling API access (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI)
- inference clouds reselling open models on per-token prices
Chinese and open-weight share of model tokens
Loses if it rises
- closed US labs selling API access
- investors in closed-model valuations
Loses if it falls
- Chinese labs and open-weight makers (Alibaba's Qwen, Moonshot, Z.ai and others)
- inference clouds built on open models