Power producers' revenue growth, Q3?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseslarge loads buying power
Loses if it fallsmerchant generators and their lenders
Book · 5 contracts · 6 expiries
The power bill
Power sold in the data-center states, the grid's capacity price, the household bill, gas at Henry Hub and the power producers' revenue: who pays for the load.
The theses it settles
The contracts
The next expiry of each; a strike opens its question, the title its whole ladder.
Data-center states' power sales growth, September?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseshyperscalers and colocation tenants on utility tariffs that pass grid upgrades through to large loads
Loses if it fallsmerchant generators and independent power producers selling into PJM and ERCOT
US home electricity price in September?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseshouseholds and retail electricity suppliers selling fixed-price residential plans
Loses if it fallsresidential solar and storage installers whose savings case rests on rising tariffs
Henry Hub gas price, November average?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesgas-fired generators and utilities without fuel pass-through, and data centers running on-site gas turbines
Loses if it fallsAppalachian and Haynesville gas producers, such as EQT and Expand Energy
PJM capacity price, 2029/2030 delivery year?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesutilities and large loads in PJM, data centers among them, that buy capacity at the auction price
Loses if it fallsmerchant generators in PJM, such as Constellation, Vistra and Talen
Who sits on each side
The commercial parties a print hurts, on each side: the ones who would hedge with a contract on it.
- Commercial electricity sales in six data-center statesLoses if it rises
- hyperscalers and colocation tenants on utility tariffs that pass grid upgrades through to large loads
- commercial ratepayers in Virginia and Texas who share the cost of new transmission
Loses if it falls- merchant generators and independent power producers selling into PJM and ERCOT
- utilities that sized capital plans to data-center load, such as Dominion, AEP and Southern
- PJM capacity auction RTO clearing priceLoses if it rises
- utilities and large loads in PJM, data centers among them, that buy capacity at the auction price
- retail suppliers who sold fixed-price contracts covering the delivery year
Loses if it falls- merchant generators in PJM, such as Constellation, Vistra and Talen
- developers of new gas and battery plants whose financing assumes the price
- US average residential electricity priceLoses if it rises
- households and retail electricity suppliers selling fixed-price residential plans
- state regulators and utilities facing rate cases over data-center cost allocation
Loses if it falls- residential solar and storage installers whose savings case rests on rising tariffs
- generators and utilities whose earnings track wholesale pass-through
- Revenue growth of the independent power producersLoses if it rises
- large loads buying power
- data-center developers on merchant exposure
Loses if it falls- merchant generators and their lenders
- nuclear and gas plant owners
- Henry Hub natural gas spot price, monthly averageLoses if it rises
- gas-fired generators and utilities without fuel pass-through, and data centers running on-site gas turbines
- LNG buyers and chemical makers that use gas as feedstock
Loses if it falls- Appalachian and Haynesville gas producers, such as EQT and Expand Energy
- pipeline shippers and midstream firms paid on volumes tied to drilling