← All the booksBook · 3 contracts · 9 expiries
Powered land Data-center construction and the revenue of Taiwan's AI hardware chain and of the power and cooling suppliers: whether the buildings fill as fast as they go up.
The theses it settles
The book’s index The chance its theses’ side wins, the mean over its 3 front contracts.
Its thesis wins
Settled so far: 0 for, 0 against.
The contracts The next expiry of each; a strike opens its question, the title its whole ladder.
AG15 · settles Nov 2 · +1 later expiry 6 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises data-center developers and hyperscalers paying for scarce electricians, switchgear and transformers
Loses if it falls electrical-equipment makers and contractors with data-center backlogs, such as Vertiv, Eaton and Quanta
AG34 · settles Nov 3 · +1 later expiry 7 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises data-center developers paying for electrical and thermal gear
Loses if it falls equipment makers
AG07 · settles Nov 10 · +4 later expiries 14 days
Its thesis wins
Loses if it rises hyperscalers and neoclouds paying for AI racks, whose capital spending is this revenue
Loses if it falls Taiwan server assemblers and their lenders (Hon Hai, Quanta, Wistron, Wiwynn)
Who sits on each side The commercial parties a print hurts, on each side: the ones who would hedge with a contract on it.
Monthly revenue of Taiwan's AI hardware chain, growth from a year earlier Loses if it rises hyperscalers and neoclouds paying for AI racks, whose capital spending is this revenue Taiwan life insurers holding US dollar bonds, as the export receipts lift the Taiwan dollar Loses if it falls Taiwan server assemblers and their lenders (Hon Hai, Quanta, Wistron, Wiwynn) suppliers of power, cooling and networking to the racks (Delta, Asia Vital, Accton) and their component vendors US private data-center construction spending Loses if it rises data-center developers and hyperscalers paying for scarce electricians, switchgear and transformers other commercial and industrial builders competing for the same contractors Loses if it falls electrical-equipment makers and contractors with data-center backlogs, such as Vertiv, Eaton and Quanta construction lenders and data-center developers financed on growing pipelines Revenue growth of the data-center power and cooling basket Loses if it rises data-center developers paying for electrical and thermal gear Loses if it falls equipment makers their component suppliers