GPU resale index for October?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesbuyers of used GPU fleets (second-tier clouds, universities, enterprises)
Loses if it fallslenders and lessors holding GPUs as collateral or residual value
Book · 3 contracts · 4 expiries
The debt behind the machines
The hyperscalers' lease obligations, what a used GPU fetches as collateral and the term premium of the money underneath.
The theses it settles
The contracts
The next expiry of each; a strike opens its question, the title its whole ladder.
10-year term premium, December average?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it risesissuers rolling AI capex debt, such as hyperscaler bond programs and data-center ABS sponsors
Loses if it fallsborrowers who locked fixed rates on data-center construction loans through swaps
Big Tech lease liabilities growth, Q4?
Its thesis winsCall a strike to reveal
Loses if it riseshyperscaler creditors who rank beside the lessors
Loses if it fallsdata-center developers and REITs that lease to them
Who sits on each side
The commercial parties a print hurts, on each side: the ones who would hedge with a contract on it.
- Operating lease liabilities of the four hyperscalers, growth from a year earlierLoses if it rises
- hyperscaler creditors who rank beside the lessors
- rating agencies' adjusted leverage
Loses if it falls- data-center developers and REITs that lease to them
- the securitization buyers of their rent
- GPU resale value (used data-center GPUs)Loses if it rises
- buyers of used GPU fleets (second-tier clouds, universities, enterprises)
- lessees with buyout options at fair value
Loses if it falls- lenders and lessors holding GPUs as collateral or residual value
- insurers writing GPU residual value cover
- 10-year Treasury term premium (Kim-Wright)Loses if it rises
- issuers rolling AI capex debt, such as hyperscaler bond programs and data-center ABS sponsors
- holders of long-duration bonds and data-center real estate valued on long cash flows
Loses if it falls- borrowers who locked fixed rates on data-center construction loans through swaps
- money funds and short-duration lenders whose relative carry shrinks