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Explore · AI.ADOPT

AI Adoption, Productivity & Industry Transformation

Where AI changes the costs and revenues of the rest of the economy.

The pulse · chance the Call's side wins
0100 6766
WhoPulseQuestions
the Call6736
the machines6636
the readers—from 5

mean chance that the Call's side wins over the sector's open questions with a side (p when the Call expects yes, 100 - p when no); shown from two questions; the crowd counts a question from 5 readers

Theses

Adoption · Thesis 101

Will BLS CPS data show the employment-population ratio for workers aged 20-24 fall by at least 1.5 percentage points from its 2025 average to the trailing-12-month average ending in a month on or before November 2027?

18 questions12 people
Adoption · Thesis 102

Will Challenger, Gray & Christmas report cumulative US job cuts explicitly attributed to 'artificial intelligence' of at least 100,000 for calendar year 2027?

9 questions8 people
Adoption · Thesis 104

Will the S&P 500 ex-financials aggregate trailing-twelve-month operating margin reported for Q4 2026 exceed the Q4 2025 level by at least 50 basis points?

21 questions7 people
Adoption · Thesis 105

Will at least three of MercadoLibre, Paycom, Salesforce and Lemonade report a fiscal 2026 operating margin at least 200 basis points above their fiscal 2025 level?

19 questions5 people
Adoption · Thesis 107

Will US nonfarm business labor productivity growth, measured year-over-year, be at or above 2.5% in any quarter reported by BLS between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31?

21 questions9 people
Adoption · Thesis 109

Will the BLS nonfarm business labor share index fall below its 2025 average in the last reading published before 2027-12-31?

17 questions6 people
Adoption · Thesis 118

Will at least two of Accenture, Cognizant, Infosys, Globant and EPAM report negative year-over-year constant-currency revenue growth in any single reported quarter ending on or before 2027-09-30?

9 questions7 people
Adoption · Thesis 119

Will the largest listed customer-experience BPO operators (Teleperformance, Concentrix, TaskUs) collectively report declining organic revenue for a fiscal year covering 2026 or 2027?

4 questions8 people

Open questions

42 · 8 theses
Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow be at least 24 percent of its revenue for the quarter ended November 30 2026?
12 people · 12 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI replaces entry-level white-collar work

Yes: operating cash flow stays at 24 percent or more of revenue, close to recent quarterly readings.

If yes

Remote work, not AI, explains weak youth hiring

No: operating cash flow falls below 24 percent of revenue, well under the most recent quarterly print.

Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow be at least 28 percent of revenue for the quarter ended November 30, 2026?
12 people · 12 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI replaces entry-level white-collar work

Yes if Paychex converts at least 28 of every 100 dollars of revenue into operating cash, matching its typical strong cash generation.

If yes

Remote work, not AI, explains weak youth hiring

No if the ratio falls below 28 percent, as it did last quarter at 26.2 percent, pulled down by payouts or working capital swings.

Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow be at least 33 percent of revenue for the quarter ended November 30, 2026?
12 people · 12 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI replaces entry-level white-collar work

Yes if Paychex converts at least 33 of every 100 dollars of revenue into operating cash, above its recent quarterly pace.

If yes

Remote work, not AI, explains weak youth hiring

No if the ratio stays below 33 percent, continuing the softer cash conversion seen last quarter at 26.2 percent.

Adoption · settles Dec 1755 days
Will Accenture's operating cash flow be at least 15 percent of revenue for the quarter ended November 30, 2026?
12 people · 12 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI replaces entry-level white-collar work

Yes if Accenture turns at least 15 of every 100 dollars of revenue into operating cash, in line with recent quarters.

If yes

Remote work, not AI, explains weak youth hiring

No if the ratio drops below 15 percent, a weaker showing than last quarter's 16.6 percent.

Adoption · settles Dec 1755 days
Will Accenture's operating cash flow be at least 18 percent of revenue for the quarter ended November 30, 2026?
12 people · 12 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI replaces entry-level white-collar work

Yes if Accenture turns at least 18 of every 100 dollars of revenue into operating cash, above last quarter's 16.6 percent.

If yes

Remote work, not AI, explains weak youth hiring

No if the ratio stays below 18 percent, matching the recent run rate near 16 to 17 percent.

Adoption · settles Dec 1755 days
Will Accenture's operating cash flow be at least 20 percent of revenue for the quarter ended November 30, 2026?
12 people · 12 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI replaces entry-level white-collar work

Yes if Accenture turns at least 20 of every 100 dollars of revenue into operating cash, well above last quarter's 16.6 percent.

If yes

Remote work, not AI, explains weak youth hiring

No if the ratio stays below 20 percent, continuing the recent pace seen in the prior quarter.

Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow be at least 28 percent of revenue for the quarter ended November 30, 2026?
7 people · 7 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI savings get reinvested into growth, not harvested as margin

No if the ratio falls below 28 percent, as it did last quarter at 26.2 percent, pulled down by payouts or working capital swings.

If yes

Firms expand margins from AI

Yes if Paychex converts at least 28 of every 100 dollars of revenue into operating cash, matching its typical strong cash generation.

Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow be at least 33 percent of revenue for the quarter ended November 30, 2026?
7 people · 7 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI savings get reinvested into growth, not harvested as margin

No if the ratio stays below 33 percent, continuing the softer cash conversion seen last quarter at 26.2 percent.

If yes

Firms expand margins from AI

Yes if Paychex converts at least 33 of every 100 dollars of revenue into operating cash, above its recent quarterly pace.

Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow be at least 38 percent of revenue for the quarter ended November 30, 2026?
7 people · 7 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI savings get reinvested into growth, not harvested as margin

No if the ratio stays below 38 percent, in line with the recent quarterly pace around 26 to 27 percent.

If yes

Firms expand margins from AI

Yes if Paychex converts at least 38 of every 100 dollars of revenue into operating cash, a sharp jump from last quarter's 26.2 percent.

Adoption · settles Oct 296 days
Will Mastercard's operating cash flow hit at least 43 percent of revenue in Q3 2026?
7 people · 7 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI savings get reinvested into growth, not harvested as margin

No: costs grow with revenue and the ratio stays below 43 percent, similar to the prior quarter's 40.7 percent reading.

If yes

Firms expand margins from AI

Yes: AI driven cost savings and efficient collections push cash generation back above 43 percent of revenue.

Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow for Q1 fiscal 2027 be at least 31.0% of its revenue?
5 people · 5 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

AI savings reinvested into growth, not margin, at these firms

Expects cash generation to stay near the recent pace, keeping the ratio below 31.0% as it was in the last print of 26.2%.

If yes

Firms expand margins from AI

Expects strong seasonal cash collection to push the ratio above the last print of 26.2%, closer to the year-ago level of 48.1%.

Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow be at least 29 percent of revenue for the quarter ending November 30 2026?
9 people · 9 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

Measured productivity stays below the bar

Expects the ratio to fall below 29 percent, continuing the softer trend seen in the most recent quarter.

If yes

Measured productivity rises

Expects operating cash flow to stay strong relative to revenue, continuing the higher ratio seen a year earlier.

Adoption · settles Dec 1856 days
Will Paychex's operating cash flow be at least 32 percent of revenue for the quarter ending November 30 2026?
9 people · 9 claims2 sides2 machines
If no

Measured productivity stays below the bar

Expects the ratio to fall below 32 percent, continuing the softer trend seen in the most recent quarter.

If yes

Measured productivity rises

Expects operating cash flow to stay strong relative to revenue, continuing the higher ratio seen a year earlier.