Power & grid · settles Dec 947 days
Will PJM's December 2026 capacity auction for 2029 to 2030 clear below the price cap set for that auction?
3 sides
The bill no state can shield Wholesale capacity scarcity reaches every bill regardless of state rules, supporting a clearing price at the cap again.
The plant is late New supply keeps arriving later than planned, which supports the price clearing at the cap rather than below it.
Power & grid · settles Feb 22122 days
Will 2026 electric price hikes in PJM states beat other states by four points or more, while Texas rises less than the US?
3 sides
a side The load pays its way Expects no: costs land on whoever triggers them, so PJM households are not stuck covering grid build-out that isn't theirs.
The bill no state can shield Expects yes: wholesale scarcity pricing hits every PJM bill directly and no state tariff can block it from showing up.
Power & grid · settles Nov 917 days
Will Constellation Energy's long-term debt reach at least 320 percent of its quarterly revenue by September 30, 2026?
2 sides
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects gas as the bridge fuel for AI load to keep debt-funded buildout high relative to revenue.
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight gas supply to cap generation growth, keeping debt from outpacing revenue this much.
Power & grid · settles Nov 917 days
Will Constellation Energy's long-term debt reach at least 355 percent of its quarterly revenue by September 30, 2026?
2 sides
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects gas as the bridge fuel for AI load to keep debt-funded buildout high relative to revenue.
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight gas supply to cap generation growth, keeping debt from outpacing revenue this much.
Power & grid · settles Nov 917 days
Will Constellation Energy's long-term debt reach at least 390 percent of its quarterly revenue by September 30, 2026?
2 sides
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects gas as the bridge fuel for AI load to keep debt-funded buildout high relative to revenue.
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight gas supply to cap generation growth, keeping debt from outpacing revenue this much.
Power & grid · settles Nov 1018 days
Will the government's November energy outlook forecast over 4,200 billion kilowatthours of electricity sales for 2027?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight natural gas supply to cap generation growth, keeping total electricity sales below the higher forecast path.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects AI datacenter demand to push gas-fired generation and overall electricity sales higher as the marginal fuel of choice.
Power & grid · settles Nov 1018 days
Will the government's November energy outlook put average wholesale power prices at or over $50 per megawatthour for 2027?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight gas supply to limit generation growth rather than lift prices, keeping the hub average below this level.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects AI-driven power demand to keep gas as the marginal fuel, pushing wholesale hub prices up toward or past this level.
Power & grid · settles Dec 846 days
Will the government's December energy outlook forecast over 4,200 billion kilowatthours of electricity sales for 2027?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight natural gas supply to cap generation growth, keeping total electricity sales below the higher forecast path.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects AI datacenter demand to push gas-fired generation and overall electricity sales higher as the marginal fuel of choice.
Power & grid · settles Dec 846 days
Will the government's December energy outlook put average wholesale power prices at or over $50 per megawatthour for 2027?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight gas supply to limit generation growth rather than lift prices, keeping the hub average below this level.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects AI-driven power demand to keep gas as the marginal fuel, pushing wholesale hub prices up toward or past this level.
Power & grid · settles Jan 1281 days
Will the government's January energy outlook forecast over 4,200 billion kilowatthours of electricity sales for 2027?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight natural gas supply to cap generation growth, keeping total electricity sales below the higher forecast path.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects AI datacenter demand to push gas-fired generation and overall electricity sales higher as the marginal fuel of choice.
Power & grid · settles Jan 1281 days
Will the government's January energy outlook put average wholesale power prices at or over $50 per megawatthour for 2027?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight gas supply to limit generation growth rather than lift prices, keeping the hub average below this level.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects AI-driven power demand to keep gas as the marginal fuel, pushing wholesale hub prices up toward or past this level.
Power & grid · settles Feb 9109 days
Will the EIA say in February 2027 that US business power use will rise at least 2.5 percent in 2027?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight gas supply from shale decline and LNG exports to slow gas power additions, keeping growth under 2.5 percent.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects gas plants to keep filling the AI data center power gap, pushing commercial electricity use growth to 2.5 percent or more.
Power & grid · settles Feb 9109 days
Will the EIA's February 2027 forecast put 2027 wholesale power prices at 50 dollars per megawatthour or higher?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share No: tightening gas supply from shale depletion and LNG exports could cap gas generation growth, letting wind, solar and nuclear close the gap.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes: gas is the fastest fuel to build for AI data center demand, so gas burn and prices climb as load grows.
Power & grid · settles Mar 9137 days
Will the EIA say in March 2027 that US business power use will rise at least 2.5 percent in 2027?
2 sides
Gas supply tightness, not non-gas buildout, caps gas's share Expects tight gas supply from shale decline and LNG exports to slow gas power additions, keeping growth under 2.5 percent.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects gas plants to keep filling the AI data center power gap, pushing commercial electricity use growth to 2.5 percent or more.
Power & grid · settles Nov 917 days
Will Constellation Energy's equipment purchases for the quarter ending September 30, 2026 be at or above 20.0% of its revenue?
2 sides
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 No if spending slows or revenue grows faster, pulling the ratio below 20.0%.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes if capital spending stays near its recent pace, which read 21.3% of revenue the prior quarter.
Power & grid · settles Nov 917 days
Will Constellation Energy's equipment purchases for the quarter ending September 30, 2026 be at or above 22.5% of its revenue?
2 sides
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 No if spending stays near its recent level or falls, remaining below 22.5% of revenue.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes if capital spending rises above its recent 21.3% of revenue pace, reaching the higher 22.5% mark.
Power & grid · settles Nov 917 days
Will Constellation Energy's property and equipment purchases hit 25 percent of its revenue in Q3 2026?
2 sides
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 No: spending stays below a quarter of revenue, in line with the lower 14.9 percent reading from a year earlier.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes: heavy capex for AI-driven power demand keeps spending near or above a quarter of revenue, as seen last quarter at 21.3 percent.
Power & grid · settles Nov 614 days
Will Vistra's long-term debt reach 410 percent of its quarterly revenue in Q3 2026?
2 sides
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes: debt stays high relative to revenue, continuing the pattern seen last quarter at 445.2 percent.
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 No: revenue grows faster than debt or debt is paid down, pulling the ratio under 410 percent.
Power & grid · settles Nov 614 days
Will Vistra's long-term debt reach 435 percent of its quarterly revenue in Q3 2026?
2 sides
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes: debt stays high relative to revenue, continuing the pattern seen last quarter at 445.2 percent.
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 No: revenue grows faster than debt or debt is paid down, pulling the ratio under 435 percent.
Power & grid · settles Nov 614 days
Will Vistra's long-term debt reach 455 percent of its quarterly revenue in Q3 2026?
2 sides
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes: debt keeps climbing or revenue falls, pushing the ratio past last quarter's 445.2 percent.
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 No: the ratio stays below 455 percent, close to or under last quarter's 445.2 percent reading.
Power & grid · settles Apr 6165 days
Will the EIA's April 2027 report forecast total US electricity sales for 2027 at 4,200 billion kilowatthours or more?
2 sides
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 Expects gas supply strain and a Henry Hub price spike above 7 dollars to curb power demand growth below that mark.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects AI data center gas demand and rising power use to push total 2027 electricity sales to 4,200 billion kilowatthours or above.
Power & grid · settles Apr 6165 days
Will the EIA's April 2027 forecast put 2027 wholesale power prices at 50 dollars per megawatthour or higher?
2 sides
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 No: fast gas plant buildouts incentivize enough drilling and pipeline growth to keep Henry Hub under 7 dollars despite rising demand.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes: data center gas demand stacking on LNG exports while shale growth slows could push Henry Hub above 7 dollars, lifting power prices.
Power & grid · settles May 11200 days
Will the EIA's May 2027 report forecast total US electricity sales for 2027 at 4,200 billion kilowatthours or more?
2 sides
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 Expects gas supply strain and a Henry Hub price spike above 7 dollars to curb power demand growth below that mark.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Expects AI data center gas demand and rising power use to push total 2027 electricity sales to 4,200 billion kilowatthours or above.
Power & grid · settles May 11200 days
Will the EIA's May 2027 forecast put 2027 wholesale power prices at 50 dollars per megawatthour or higher?
2 sides
Henry Hub stays under $7 through 2027 No: fast gas plant buildouts incentivize enough drilling and pipeline growth to keep Henry Hub under 7 dollars despite rising demand.
Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load Yes: data center gas demand stacking on LNG exports while shale growth slows could push Henry Hub above 7 dollars, lifting power prices.