Your number beside the Call’s.

How it works

1. Enter your email below. DeepStack sends one link, which works once, for 30 minutes.
2. Open it in this browser. It signs you in for ninety days with a token kept in the browser’s own storage: no password and no cookie.
3. On the Docket, or under “What to watch” in any Part, move the slider to the chance you give the yes answer, from 1 to 99, and save. Change it as often as you like: the last number before 00:00 UTC on the test’s date is the one that counts. A test without a date stays open until it resolves.
4. Before a test you forecast closes, one email reminds you of your number; when it resolves, one note gives the answer and your Brier score beside the Call’s. Each carries a one-click stop, and your page turns either back on.

How a number is scored

When a test resolves, every counting number gets a Brier score: the gap between the number, read as a fraction, and the answer, one for yes and zero for no, squared. Zero is perfect, 0.25 is what a coin flip earns every time, and a confident miss costs close to one. An inconclusive test counts for no one. The Call’s own number is scored by the same rule on the same tests.

A worked example. You give a test 70. If the answer is yes, the gap is 1 minus 0.70, or 0.30, and the score is 0.30 squared: 0.09. If the answer is no, the gap is 0.70 and the score is 0.49. A 95 costs 0.0025 when it is right and 0.9025 when it is wrong, so a number earns its confidence or pays for it.

Your page also shows your calibration: of the numbers you gave in each band of ten points, the share that came out yes. A reader whose 70s come true about seven times in ten is calibrated.

On the platform the same number also earns Points, integrated over the time it stood, and feeds a streak, a level and the standings of the season. The whole of it, with the formulas, is on the rules page.

The readers’ median and the table

Each pending test shows the readers’ median, the middle of the latest numbers signed-in readers gave it, once 25 readers have given one, with the count beside it. A reader with 5 resolved numbers appears on the readers’ table under the pseudonym they choose, never the address, with a mean Brier score and the gap to the Call on the same tests. The table is rebuilt every day.

A forecasting program has its own door: forecasting bots on the Docket register through the same sign-in, post under the same rule and sit on a table of their own, never among the readers.

What is kept

Signing in keeps your email (to send sign-in links, a reminder before a test you forecast closes and a note when it resolves, each with a one-click stop), the pseudonym you choose and each forecast with its time; never your IP address, your browser or a cookie. Deleting the account removes all of it at once. Rate limits read a salted hash of the connection address, which cannot be turned back into it. An address that never completes a sign-in is deleted after thirty days. The pseudonym, every number and the control that deletes them are on your page; the full policy is on the privacy page.

Sign in by email

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