Every question, settled in the open.

Next test · Oct 28, 2026Microsoft reports: the share of backlog due within twelve months, 30% last quarter, and whether the near book's growth closes on the far book's 113%; at Alphabet, whether the TPU contracts inside cloud backlog get a size; at Meta, whether the $10.8 billion of restricted cash stays restricted.

Next test · OctoberAnthropic filing or listing reveals audited revenue, losses and concentration, testing the $400B revenue milestone.

Next test · Oct 28, 2026Meta reports its September quarter; users, transaction volume and fees would show whether downloads are becoming a business.

Next test · Oct 20, 2026September-quarter results test cash flow toward $2 trillion and whether maintenance costs enter accounting.

Next test · Oct 15, 2026Treasury publishes August foreign holdings; renewed Japanese buying despite poor hedged returns would undercut the missing-buyer thesis behind the long-end selloff.

Next test · Dec 10, 2026ERCOT is due to verify its first large-load batch study; the cleared list shows whether Texas weeds out speculators or rations power.

Next test · Jan 3, 2028Return on invested capital should be visible by Romero’s deadline; failure would turn today’s extraordinary economics into a first-year illusion.

Next test · Jan 1, 2027Alphabet discloses its higher 2027 budget; a rise in the stock revives the defense case, another fall validates the return test.

Next test · Nov 10, 2026Short-term premiums collapsing toward long-term rates would weaken the backwardation warning; persistence would make it harder to dismiss.

Next test · Jan 1, 2027Quarterly deployed gigawatts will test the roughly 10 GW site plan against 0.4 GW operating now.

Next testIf end demand survives market-rate financing, the financed-demand warning weakens; if recurrence falls, private-credit risk moves to the front.