How DeepStack settles a question · Part 10

Does the hardware hold its value?

From Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator. 12 voices on 2 sides, attributed and dated; the DeepStack Call with its history; 5 dated tests that settle it; the results as they come in.

The DeepStack callSkeptical

The market is not cheap. It is capitalizing AI earnings before anyone knows who owns them.

Cheap is conditional · Conviction High (4/5)

Read the full call

Call history

  1. v1Cheap is conditionalConviction High (4/5)First call, as published with the story. The conviction, the actions and the flips were set down for the site on October 7, 2026.

6 voices

A model, not a price

  1. Michael Burry

    CoreWeave and Nvidia's efforts to show stamina in the pricing of their chips are simply at odds with the depreciation realities lenders actually face.

    Source

  2. Michael Burry

    Manufacturers such as Nvidia and hyperscalers such as Oracle and Google Cloud are offering residual value guarantees for chips not because they want to but because lenders require them, given that chip depreciation is a very real problem following…

    Source

  3. Ren

    Architectures change faster than factories can retool, and with NVIDIA targeting up to 30% lower total cost of ownership with 800 VDC, a shift that large rewards whoever redesigns fastest, so today's winning box may not win in five years, which…

    Source

  4. Ren

    The popular Jevons-paradox story that cheaper inference means bulk consumption and justifies simply buying the picks-and-shovels trade does not match Astra's actual pricing, since Astra's tokens got more expensive per unit (versus Sol, 2.5x on…

    Source

  5. Kakashii

    The creator calculates that Nvidia's plan to ship over 10 million chips of Blackwell and Rubin by the end of 2026 implies a total required power of roughly 17 to 23 GW, averaging around 20 GW, and questions whether enough data centers are under…

    Source

  6. Kakashii

    The creator's long-standing thesis, which they say has gained support and validation over time, is that Blackwell GPUs had to be shipped to warehouses because there were not enough compatible datacenters (with the needed cooling and equipment) to…

    Source

6 voices

Still renting at January prices

  1. David George

    GPUs are already running hot even while the data indicates it's still very early in mature AI adoption and utilization.

    Source

  2. David George

    Since 2023, tech has been the earnings growth story, contributing about 76% of the S&P 500's total earnings growth in 2026 as of late August.

    Source

  3. JunkBondInvestor

    Contracted GPU lease rates and second-hand prices have held up even for chips launched 3 to 6 years ago, and compute is now about 60% of hyperscaler capex, so the scarce, short-lived asset is a growing share of what is being financed.

    Source

  4. JunkBondInvestor

    The entire AI buildout has been constrained by scarcity of power, GPUs, transformers, interconnection, skilled labor and ready-to-use capacity, and this scarcity has propped up the economics of everything financed against it by holding up lease…

    Source

  5. Tae Kim

    The creator believes that if OpenAI were public, its stock would have gapped up 30% or more on hitting $70 billion in ARR, a blowout versus expectations on the level of Nvidia in May 2023, and that the figure proves his August report that OpenAI's…

    Source

  6. Tae Kim

    Axios reported, and the Financial Times later confirmed the same day, that OpenAI's annual recurring revenue is nearing $70 billion, with enterprise sales more than doubled since July according to sources familiar with the financials.

    Source

Where they cross

Who answers whom.

The specific points where one voice meets another: the same evidence read two ways, or the same mechanism with a different sign.

What settles it

The dated tests.

The tests the story set, each with its specification where the owner has written one; on the Docket, resolved on the Results page.

  1. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon report; depreciation, server lives and 29.5% growth will test the earnings denominator.

    Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator Pendingp10-t01

    Question
    Did the combined depreciation and amortization of Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow faster from the year-earlier quarter than their combined operating income?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, the four companies' earnings releases (Form 8-K) and quarterly reports (Form 10-Q)
    Rule
    Sum depreciation and amortization, and sum operating income, for the four companies for the September quarter of 2026 and of 2025, from each release or 10-Q; a year-over-year growth rate for depreciation above the rate for operating income resolves confirmed, equal or below resolves refuted. A change to server useful lives disclosed in the same filings is the owner's reading into the Result, not the verdict.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If any of the four has not reported by November 7, 2026, or restates the year-earlier quarter, the test is inconclusive, reviewed by the owner.

  2. Anthropic filing or listing reveals audited revenue, losses and concentration, testing the $400B revenue milestone.

    Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator Pendingp10-t02 · month

    Question
    Did Anthropic file a registration statement (Form S-1 or equivalent) with audited financial statements on SEC EDGAR, or begin trading, by October 31, 2026?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, Anthropic filings
    Rule
    Yes if a registration statement for Anthropic carrying audited revenue, net loss and customer-concentration disclosures is public on EDGAR by October 31, 2026, or its shares begin trading by that date; the test resolves confirmed on yes and refuted on no. The audited figures against the $400 billion run-rate line Romero named for the end of 2027, and the two-customer share Silverio cited, are the owner's reading into the Result.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    A confidential draft filing reported in the press but not public on EDGAR, or a filing without audited statements, is inconclusive, reviewed by the owner.
  3. At 5.5% 10-year

    A 5.5% Treasury yield tests Howell’s turning-point history against TSCS’s warning that the long end will keep rising.

    Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator Pendingp10-t03

    Specification pending

  4. Next used-GPU print

    Three-year-old chip rents and resale prices show whether scarcity or durable economics supports hardware values.

    Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator Pendingp10-t04

    Specification pending

  5. Productivity data

    A rise in total factor productivity would show the rest of the economy can write the checks; a flat reading leaves bondholders exposed.

    Part 10: The Bubble Is in the Denominator Pendingp10-t05

    Specification pending

Sources (9)
  1. FactSet - S&P 500 earnings multiples and estimates
  2. CNBC - 10-year Treasury yield
  3. a16z - technology profit growth
  4. Prof G Markets - AI and earnings
  5. Aurelion Research - Nvidia and infrastructure
  6. Apollo - hyperscaler credit and cash flow
  7. Axios - OpenAI annual revenue
  8. PYMNTS - Anthropic listing expectations
  9. BLS - productivity release

Market data are as of the dates cited. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name.

Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Every question, one page each.