How DeepStack settles a question · Part 13

Who pays for the AI power bill?

From Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First. 32 voices on 3 sides, attributed and dated; the DeepStack Call with its history; 3 dated tests that settle it; the results as they come in.

The DeepStack callMixed

Data centers pay for their own wires. The higher capacity price their demand sets lands first on every PJM household's bill.

The ratepayer pays first · Conviction Moderate (3/5)

Our Call takes the side “The bill no state can shield”.

Read the full call

Call history2 versions · last changed
  1. v2The ratepayer pays firstConviction Moderate (3/5)Side: The bill no state can shieldSide named by the owner.
  2. v1The ratepayer pays firstConviction Moderate (3/5)First call, with the story.

12 voices

The load pays its way

  1. Sonya Huang

    Vahdat: Google pays for its own lines.

  2. Google

    Citing ERCOT's October 2025 reporting, over 200 gigawatts of large loads have requested interconnection through the interim process, yet less than 4% have been granted approval to energize and about another 7% are eligible to seek energization…

    Source

  3. Google

    The Joint Commenters recommend the Commission adopt a unifying framework aligning all related rulemakings and ERCOT protocol revisions, advancing cost-causation-based cost assignment that shields residential and small commercial customers from cost…

    Source

  4. Crusoe Energy

    Crusoe states that co-located generation, when structured correctly, simultaneously advances grid reliability, reduces ratepayer costs, and accelerates AI infrastructure buildout, which is the basis of its energy-first 'bring your own power' model.

    Source

  5. Crusoe Energy

    Crusoe states that PJM's own filing acknowledges a lower threshold risks forcing existing BTMG resources offline during the transition period, which would increase grid burden by converting currently netted load into full network load without…

    Source

  6. EDF Power Solutions

    EDFps says BTMG co-location can reduce grid congestion, avoid generator interconnection queue delays, lower network upgrade needs, reduce congestion costs, allow the load to provide demand response if power demands are flexible, and deliver…

    Source

  7. EDF Power Solutions

    EDFps argues PJM's own proposed contract demand service changes alleviate the ability of large loads with Retail BTMG to lean on the system, since a Retail BTMG equal to the load size fully covered by Non-Firm Contract Demand would be limited to…

    Source

  8. NRG Energy

    NRG argues that because the funding a large load customer must supply to bring new generation greatly exceeds the $50,000/MW security amount, concerns about whether the large load can meet financial commitments are easily satisfied under BYOG…

    Source

  9. NRG Energy

    NRG states the ERCOT region faces unprecedented load growth over the next five years, which it says will bring both grid challenges and significant business development opportunities in Texas, making it critical to get the large load…

    Source

  10. Kingswell

    BHE's stance of participating in data center buildouts only if hyperscalers bear the full construction and operating cost is a disciplined framework that lets it join a major infrastructure cycle without spreading risk and cost onto existing…

    Source

  11. Data Center Coalition

    PJM's proposed June 1, 2029 effective date for the new transmission services presumably means PJM cannot start studying these innovative solutions for over three years, and the goal should be to implement needed reforms earlier than 2029 given the…

    Source

  12. Data Center Coalition

    Clearer interconnection rules for existing generators also require more concrete timelines for reviewing and approving Necessary Studies and CIR revisions, and PJM needs to account for CIRs going to the specific co-located customer so a generator…

    Source

11 voices

The bill no state can shield

  1. Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor)

    The central issue facing PJM, which the Market Monitor says the ANOPR appears to largely ignore, is that there is not enough generating capacity to reliably serve the large loads that want to be online quickly.

    Source

  2. Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor)

    The Market Monitor states that the current failure to impose a reliability requirement has led to large increases in capacity market prices, and also in energy market prices and transmission costs.

    Source

  3. Virginia State Corporation Commission

    Taking action specific to the PJM region appears to the VSCC to be both premature and potentially harmful, to the extent it conflicts with later guidance through the NOPR process, since the ANOPR already frames whether and how hybrid loads…

    Source

  4. Virginia State Corporation Commission

    Implementing a minimum set of standards designed to remove bottlenecks within the interconnection queue itself can expedite interconnections without disturbing existing state-federal jurisdictional boundaries.

  5. Maryland Office of People's Counsel

    Fixing cost allocation alone is insufficient if planning inputs remain corrupted by speculative and duplicative load forecasts, so a remedy must also reform the planning process to eliminate speculative load forecasts.

    Source

  6. Maryland Office of People's Counsel

    Absent regional reform, state-level remedies such as large load tariffs may worsen the problem by magnifying the incentive to overbuild while shifting costs to customers elsewhere in PJM.

    Source

  7. Exelon

    Because the transmission system is not a one-and-done investment but evolves and requires maintenance at a cost, a model where initial investment absolves co-located loads of ongoing contributions leaves other customers holding the bag and creates…

    Source

  8. tscsw

    Interconnection queues, turbine shortages, and permitting gridlock are preventing $33 billion offers from translating into actual megawatts of new capacity.

    Source

  9. tscsw

    The PJM capacity auction price for mid-Atlantic grid generation cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day in July 2024, up 9x from the previous auction's $28.92, with all subsequent auctions clearing at administrative price caps.

    Source

  10. Market Sentiment

    Market Sentiment treats the January joint declaration by the governors of all 13 PJM states with the Trump administration that power prices be reined in and that data centers pay their grid costs, together with the extension of the capacity-auction…

    Source

  11. Earthjustice

    Earthjustice argues that no commenter describes what financial penalty would be sufficient in practice, likely because none of them know what penalty would convince large load customers—who have virtually unlimited capital and very high contractual…

    Source

9 voices

The plant is late

  1. North American Electric Reliability Corporation

    Over the past two years NERC's LTRA has shown that industry resource growth projections can outpace actual completion rates, with efforts to interconnect resources hampered by unresponsive supply chains, permitting delays, and project owner…

    Source

  2. North American Electric Reliability Corporation

    Large loads inherently add volatility to load forecasts because project timelines and commitments can vary with construction, permitting approvals, grid development and data center owner decisions; revised ERCOT and PJM forecasts prepared after the…

    Source

  3. Electric Reliability Council of Texas

    ERCOT reports it is tracking roughly 438 GW of Large Load interconnection requests and roughly 452 GW of Generation Interconnection requests.

    Source

  4. Electric Reliability Council of Texas

    The 438 GW of Large Load interconnection requests is tracked through the current PGRR115-based process, in which the vast majority of requests have no studies submitted; that process ends July 10, 2026, when ERCOT switches to a batch-based…

    Source

  5. Reyk Knuhtsen

    ERCOT illustrates phantom demand: as of April 2026 it was assessing more than 410 GW of large-load interconnection requests, over 87% from datacenters, against a Texas all-time peak of about 85 GW, and they count 311 GW of that as phantom…

    Source

  6. Reyk Knuhtsen

    They acknowledge open questions in judging real delays: some projects may die on local opposition while others pass and unseat the council members who approved them, labor can be imported or become a constraint, and behind-the-meter power remains a…

    Source

  7. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros

    They expect power generation to be a major bottleneck to grid-connected datacenter load growth, pointing to utilities revising promised load ramps by years because long-lead interconnection equipment is unavailable, and to buyers now bearing the…

    Source

  8. Mia Silverio

    Investors are understandably nervous because an estimated 30% to 50% of data center capacity planned to come online this year will be delayed, as constructors face grid connection issues, power equipment supply shortages, and increasingly community…

    Source

  9. tscsw

    PJM's 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction failed to meet the reliability requirement for the first time since the capacity market's creation in 2007, achieving only a 14.8% reserve margin against a 20.0% target, a shortfall of 6,623 MW.

    Source

4 voices

Voices that cross sides

  1. Jason Bordoff

    On his program, Millican's large-load tariffs and 260 GW; Arent's spare grids.

  2. tscsw

    The capacity price ninefold; the auction short; on-site power could shrink the gap.

    Source

  3. NRG Energy

    Own generation answers affordability; the influx of large loads threatens bills.

    Source

  4. Google

    Shield households by cost causation; $24B of Texas lines need loads that connect.

    Source

Where they cross

Who answers whom.

The specific points where one voice meets another: the same evidence read two ways, or the same mechanism with a different sign.

What settles it

The dated tests.

The tests the story set, each with its specification where the owner has written one; on the Docket, resolved on the Results page.

  1. The federal price data for August: whether the median twelve-month rise in household prices across PJM's nine jurisdictions stays at least four points above the median of the other 42, from 11.7% against 5.6% in July.

    Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First Pendingp13-t01

    Question
    In the EIA-861M data through August 2026, as first published, is the median twelve-month change in the average household price per kilowatt-hour across the nine jurisdictions PJM serves (Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia) at least four percentage points above the median change across the other 42?
    Source
    U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-861M monthly sales and revenue (first release of the month tested)
    Rule
    The price is residential revenue divided by residential sales over September 2025 to August 2026, against September 2024 to August 2025, for each of the 51 jurisdictions, as the Part computes it for the year to July (11.7% against 5.6%). Confirmed if the PJM median minus the median of the other 42 is 4.0 points or more; refuted if it is below 4.0 points.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    Data for August not published by November 15, 2026 is inconclusive. Figures are read as first published in that release; later revisions do not reopen the test. If EIA withholds the residential figures for more than two of the nine PJM jurisdictions, the test is inconclusive, reviewed by the owner.

  2. PJM's capacity auction for the year from June 2029, as scheduled: whether it clears below the price ceiling, the second exit from the house's view.

    Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First Pendingp13-t02

    Question
    Does PJM's Base Residual Auction for the 2029/2030 delivery year, scheduled for December 9, 2026, clear the RTO-wide capacity price below the price cap in effect for that auction?
    Source
    PJM Interconnection, Base Residual Auction results report for 2029/2030 (pjm.com, Reliability Pricing Model)
    Rule
    Read from PJM's published results report. Confirmed if the RTO-wide clearing price is below the cap in effect for the auction; refuted if it clears at the cap. This test decides only the price leg of the second exit from the house's view; the rule on large loads bringing their own capacity is read separately in the story.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    An auction postponed past January 31, 2027, or results not posted by that date, is inconclusive. A clearing below the cap only because the cap or the demand curve was changed after October 10, 2026 is inconclusive, reviewed by the owner.

  3. The federal data for all of 2026: the same four-point test, with Texas below the national change.

    Part 13: The Ratepayer Pays First Pendingp13-t03

    Question
    In the EIA-861M data for calendar 2026, as first published, is the median change in the average household price per kilowatt-hour across PJM's nine jurisdictions against calendar 2025 at least four percentage points above the median of the other 42, with Texas's change below the national change?
    Source
    U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA-861M monthly sales and revenue (first release of the month tested)
    Rule
    Same computation as p13-t01, over January to December 2026 against January to December 2025, with the national figure from the U.S. total in the same release. Confirmed if the PJM median is at least 4.0 points above the median of the other 42 and Texas's change is below the national change; refuted if the gap is below 4.0 points.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    A gap of 4.0 points or more with Texas at or above the national change is inconclusive, reviewed by the owner. Data for December 2026 not published by March 31, 2027 is inconclusive. Figures are read as first published.
Sources (13)
  1. U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA-861M sales and revenue
  2. Monitoring Analytics (PJM market monitor) - FERC RM26-4 reply comments
  3. Virginia State Corporation Commission - FERC AD24-11 answer
  4. Maryland Office of People's Counsel - FERC RM26-4 motion
  5. Indicated PJM Transmission Owners (filed by Exelon) - FERC EL25-20 rehearing request
  6. Google and Lancium - PUCT 58317 joint comments
  7. NRG Energy - PUCT 58481 comments
  8. EDF Power Solutions - FERC ER26-1479 comments
  9. Earthjustice - FERC ER26-1479 reply comments
  10. NERC - 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment
  11. ERCOT - Interconnection and grid analysis update, May 24
  12. Training Data - Amin Vahdat on frontier AI infrastructure
  13. Prof G Markets - Nobody wants a data center

Market data are as of the dates cited. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name.

Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Every question, one page each.