What we said
The Call as it stood on October 15, 2026.
SkepticalSupply sets the long end
The bond market is pricing the AI bill, not a recession. The Fed cannot hike its way to a lower 10-year.
The test. Treasury publishes August foreign holdings; renewed Japanese buying despite poor hedged returns would undercut the missing-buyer thesis behind the long-end selloff.
p07-t02 · dated · On the Docket
Before the date, the Call expected no and gave the yes answer 35%.
The rule
How DeepStack settles a question: the specification.
- Question
- Did Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities at the end of August 2026, in the Treasury International Capital table of major foreign holders published in mid-October, read higher than at the end of July 2026?
- Source
- U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities (monthly text table)
- Rule
- Compare Japan's August 2026 line with its July 2026 line in the same table. The answer is yes if the August figure is higher; no if it is equal or lower.
- If the source is late, revised or silent
- A table published after November 30, 2026, or a July figure revised in the same table so that the comparison changes sign, is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
Approved by Marco Cauduro on October 12, 2026.
What happened
Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell: $1,103.9B at end-July 2026, $1,068.3B at end-August 2026.
Call heldAnswer: no The result is the one the Call expected. Resolved , approved by Marco Cauduro.
Treasury's Table 5 of major foreign holders, read on 2026-10-19, puts Japan's holdings at $1,068.3B at end-August 2026 against $1,103.9B at end-July 2026, a change of -$35.6B in the same table (U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities).
The rule compares the 2026-08 column with the 2026-07 column for Japan: the later figure is not higher, so the test resolves refuted.
- Japan, 2026-07 column (billions of dollars)
- $1,103.9B
- U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities · Oct 19, 2026
- Japan, 2026-08 column (billions of dollars)
- $1,068.3B
- U.S. Treasury, TIC Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities · Oct 19, 2026
The Call, before the dateThe Call gave the yes answer 35%. The answer was no.
0 · no100 · yes
What changes
The Call stands.
The DeepStack call. Conviction unchanged; the Call stands as written.
The Call did not move: it stands at version 2, Supply sets the long end, conviction 4 of 5. Call history.