Thesis · Semiconductors & Compute Silicon

Will Nvidia's reported GAAP gross margin fall below 70% in any fiscal quarter reported between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31?

Foundry and advanced-packaging pricing power may pass cost increases to chip designers; the question is whether that pressure is visible in the largest designer's reported GAAP gross margin falling below 70%.

6 dated tests · 0 resolved · next on

The tests More theses in Semiconductors & Compute Silicon

Who is on each side

The two sides.

Each side in DeepStack’s words, then the voices who argue it, attributed and paraphrased, dated where the date is known. A voice links to its page on DeepStack where one exists.

The case for yes

Concentrated foundry supply leaves designers unable to hold margin

Leading-edge foundries and packaging suppliers are few enough, and demand from hyperscalers strong enough, that suppliers can maintain pricing discipline and secure long-term agreements on their own terms. Customers who depend on a single source for the most advanced nodes have little room to re-source if input costs rise, so a widely cited structural dependence on TSMC for advanced and many less-advanced nodes leaves designers exposed. On this view that dependence shows up as Nvidia's reported GAAP gross margin falling below 70% in a quarter reported in the window.

The case for no

Designer margin holds at or above 70% through the window

Nvidia's gross margin reflects far more than wafer and packaging cost: scale, software, and system-level pricing give the designer its own leverage over what it charges customers, independent of what it pays suppliers. On this view there is no public evidence that supplier pricing power has translated into compressed designer margin, and Nvidia's reported GAAP gross margin stays at or above 70% in every quarter reported in the window.

3 voices

Concentrated foundry supply leaves designers unable to hold margin

  1. Kris

    All leading chip designers and new entrants depend on TSMC for access to most advanced and many less advanced semiconductor nodes. This creates structural demand independent of any individual designer's success.

    Source

  2. Artisan Partners

    When advanced semiconductor capacity is limited relative to demand from hyperscalers, manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung maintain pricing discipline and can secure long-term supply agreements. Newer technology generations command pricing premiums…

    Source

  3. Kingswell

    TSMC maintains its competitive advantage not through consumer brand loyalty like Apple, but by staying on the cutting edge of chip design, achieving smaller geometries and better yields than rivals. This forces customers like Apple, Nvidia and…

    Source

1 voice

Designer margin holds at or above 70% through the window

  1. Invest in Assets

    ASML's EUV and High-NA lithography machines are the only technology capable of producing advanced chips, making every leading semiconductor roadmap dependent on ASML, which generates a massive backlog and pricing power.

    Source

What would settle it

The dated tests.

Each test names the public source that settles it, the rule and the day. The Call’s number, the readers’ median and the machines’ numbers stand beside it, as on the Docket.

  1. TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 45%.

    On the Docket Pendingth015-t04Open question

    Specification pending

    Your number

  2. TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 55%.

    On the Docket Pendingth015-t05Open question

    Specification pending

    Your number

  3. TSMC, monthly revenue growth from a year earlier, October 2026: whether it comes in at or above 65%.

    On the Docket Pendingth015-t06Open question

    Specification pending

    Your number

  4. NVIDIA, gross margin, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 71%.

    On the Docket Pendingth015-t01Open question

    Specification pending

    Your number

  5. NVIDIA, gross margin, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 73%.

    On the Docket Pendingth015-t02Open question

    Specification pending

    Your number

  6. NVIDIA, gross margin, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 75%.

    On the Docket Pendingth015-t03Open question

    Specification pending

    Your number

A thesis page states one question and both sides of it; DeepStack takes no side in words, and its view is the number it gives each test before the date. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Pre-specified means the words were approved on or before the test’s date. Specified after the date means they were written afterwards: such a test is counted and shown, and never rated. An open question has no words yet. The Call’s number is the chance, from 0 to 100, that the Call gives the yes answer to a test’s question, recorded before the test’s date; it is DeepStack’s own reading, not a market price and not advice. The readers’ mark on the same line is the readers’ median, the middle of the numbers signed-in readers gave the test, shown from 25 readers.