Thesis · Power, Energy & Grid

Will at least three major tech firms announce a new natural gas generation arrangement of 300 MW or more for US data centers between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31?

Hyperscalers themselves turn to dedicated gas generation at scale for near-term AI capacity, confirming gas as the practical bridge fuel despite stated clean-energy targets.

6 dated tests · 0 resolved · next on

The tests More theses in Power, Energy & Grid

Who is on each side

The two sides.

Each side in DeepStack’s words, then the voices who argue it, attributed and paraphrased, dated where the date is known. A voice links to its page on DeepStack where one exists.

The case for yes

Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

Grid interconnection queues and firm-capacity shortfalls push AI buildouts toward behind-the-meter or co-located gas turbines and utility gas PPAs that can energize in 18-36 months. Multiple named hyperscaler-scale gas supply deals are disclosed publicly, and gas turbine order books and utility capex guidance reflect them.

The case for no

Hyperscalers favor non-gas firm supply

Tightening gas supply and rising demand could push hyperscalers toward nuclear, geothermal, or solar-plus-storage arrangements for near-term firm capacity instead of large new gas deals. This side would be shown right if hyperscalers announce predominantly nuclear, geothermal, or solar-plus-storage firm supply for near-term capacity rather than three or more 300 MW-plus gas arrangements.

2 voices

Gas is the bridge fuel for AI load

  1. Kevin Gee

    As AI and data centers scale, power demands grow exponentially. New nuclear plants take 10+ years to build and face political resistance. Renewable buildout has timeline constraints. Natural gas plants can be built and deployed quickly and are…

    Source

  2. DeepValue Capital

    AI infrastructure requires significant electricity, which is increasingly powered by natural gas as backup and baseload generation. Major financial institutions and tech companies are financing AI buildout, creating structural demand for natural gas.

    Source

1 voice

Hyperscalers favor non-gas firm supply

  1. Michael Spyker

    Because official forecasts have understated how much domestic gas demand (especially from data centers) would grow, LNG developers planned export capacity assuming ample surplus gas would remain available; as AI-driven demand materializes…

    Source

What would settle it

The dated tests.

Each test names the public source that settles it, the rule and the day. The Call’s number, the readers’ median and the machines’ numbers stand beside it, as on the Docket.

  1. GE Vernova, operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 10%.

    On the Docket Pendingth074-t04Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the operating lease liabilities of GE Vernova at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 10.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of GE Vernova (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the operating lease liabilities that GE Vernova reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 10.0%; no if it is below 10.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If GE Vernova has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    GE Vernova's operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier was 11.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 62%.

    62%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 61% · DeepSeek 70%

    Claude: 61%DeepSeek: 70%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Oct 28, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 10%Call 62% · Claude 61% · DeepSeek 70%

      62%

    2. Above 17%Call 45% · Claude 33% · DeepSeek 13%

      45%

    3. Above 24%Call 25% · Claude 31% · DeepSeek 22%

      25%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  2. GE Vernova, operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 17%.

    On the Docket Pendingth074-t05Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the operating lease liabilities of GE Vernova at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 17.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of GE Vernova (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the operating lease liabilities that GE Vernova reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 17.0%; no if it is below 17.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If GE Vernova has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    GE Vernova's operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier was 11.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 45%.

    45%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 13%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 13%

    Your number

  3. GE Vernova, operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 24%.

    On the Docket Pendingth074-t06Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the operating lease liabilities of GE Vernova at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 grow at or above 24.0% from the quarter ended September 30, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of GE Vernova (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the operating lease liabilities that GE Vernova reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 with the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 24.0%; no if it is below 24.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If GE Vernova has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    GE Vernova's operating lease liabilities growth from a year earlier was 11.1% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 25%.

    25%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 31% · DeepSeek 22%

    Claude: 31%DeepSeek: 22%

    Your number

  4. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 19%.

    On the Docket Pendingth074-t01Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 19.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 19.0%; no if it is below 19.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 64%.

    64%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 48% · DeepSeek 12%

    Claude: 48%DeepSeek: 12%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 9, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 19%Call 64% · Claude 48% · DeepSeek 12%

      64%

    2. Above 23%Call 46% · Claude 33% · DeepSeek 10%

      46%

    3. Above 27%Call 25% · Claude 17% · DeepSeek 10%

      25%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  5. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 23%.

    On the Docket Pendingth074-t02Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 23.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 23.0%; no if it is below 23.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateEither answer fits the Call. Gives the yes answer 46%.

    46%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 10%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 10%

    Your number

  6. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 27%.

    On the Docket Pendingth074-t03Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 27.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 27.0%; no if it is below 27.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 25%.

    25%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 17% · DeepSeek 10%

    Claude: 17%DeepSeek: 10%

    Your number

In The Buildout

The stories that take up this thesis, with their own Calls and tests.

A thesis page states one question and both sides of it; DeepStack takes no side in words, and its view is the number it gives each test before the date. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Pre-specified means the words were approved on or before the test’s date. Specified after the date means they were written afterwards: such a test is counted and shown, and never rated. An open question has no words yet. The Call’s number is the chance, from 0 to 100, that the Call gives the yes answer to a test’s question, recorded before the test’s date; it is DeepStack’s own reading, not a market price and not advice. The readers’ mark on the same line is the readers’ median, the middle of the numbers signed-in readers gave the test, shown from 25 readers. The machines: Each model read this page and nothing else. The number that counts is the latest one each model gave before the test closed.