Thesis · Power, Energy & Grid

Will NVIDIA report data-center revenue growth of less than 15% year-over-year in any fiscal quarter reported between 2026-11-15 and 2027-12-31 while simultaneously citing customer power/grid availability as a factor?

Power and interconnection scarcity may bind before chip supply does, potentially slowing GPU absorption in ways that show up as decelerating NVIDIA data-center revenue, if the company attributes any slowdown to siting and energization.

6 dated tests · 0 resolved · next on

The tests More theses in Power, Energy & Grid

Who is on each side

The two sides.

Each side in DeepStack’s words, then the voices who argue it, attributed and paraphrased, dated where the date is known. A voice links to its page on DeepStack where one exists.

The case for yes

Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck, and NVIDIA will say so

Rack power density is rising from tens of kW to hundreds of kW while substation, transformer, and generation additions move on multi-year utility timescales. GPUs can sit unused because they cannot be energized, so when NVIDIA's data-center revenue growth does slow, the company is likely to name customer power or grid availability as a factor, not just chip supply.

The case for no

The case against it

If chips, skilled labor such as plumbers and electricians, and power were all in unlimited supply, builders would already be racing to overcapacity; instead these combined shortages are what pace the buildout. Because allocation of chips and workers remains the visible constraint companies describe, NVIDIA's data-center revenue growth can keep compounding above 15% YoY without the company specifically citing customer power or grid availability as the reason for any given quarter.

4 voices

Interconnection capacity is the bottleneck, and NVIDIA will say so

  1. Daniel Romero

    As NVIDIA and other chip makers increase rack power density from tens of kW to hundreds of kW, grids, substations, transformers, and generation capacity that take multi-year timescales to build become the limiting factor. Compute performance…

    Source

  2. Stephen Clapham

    Physical constraints, not models, gate AI deployment

    Source

  3. Tscsw

    Physical infrastructure operates on time scales incompatible with both digital deployment speed and hardware obsolescence. Equipment becomes obsolete in 2-3 years but data centers operate for decades, creating a cascading problem where deployed…

    Source

  4. Scott Galloway

    OpenAI's stated infrastructure needs of 20% of U.S. electric capacity at $10 trillion cost, combined with five- to eight-year grid connection delays, cannot be met. Meanwhile China has twice America's energy capacity at half the cost, creating a…

    Source

1 voice

The case against it

  1. Barry Ritholtz

    Ankur Crawford argues that if there were an infinite supply of chips, people and power, the market would already be in overcapacity because everyone would build as fast as they wanted; instead, the shortage of chips, workers like plumbers and…

    Source

What would settle it

The dated tests.

Each test names the public source that settles it, the rule and the day. The Call’s number, the readers’ median and the machines’ numbers stand beside it, as on the Docket.

  1. Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 14%.

    On the Docket Pendingth076-t04Open question

    Specification pending

    The machinesClaude 72% · DeepSeek 76%

    Claude: 72%DeepSeek: 76%

    Your number

  2. Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 17.5%.

    On the Docket Pendingth076-t05Open question

    Specification pending

    The machinesClaude 34% · DeepSeek 14%

    Claude: 34%DeepSeek: 14%

    Your number

  3. Vistra, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 21%.

    On the Docket Pendingth076-t06Open question

    Specification pending

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 18%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 18%

    Your number

  4. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 18%.

    On the Docket Pendingth076-t01Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 18.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 18.0%; no if it is below 18.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 62%.

    62%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 60% · DeepSeek 12%

    Claude: 60%DeepSeek: 12%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 9, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 18%Call 62% · Claude 60% · DeepSeek 12%

      62%

    2. Above 23%Call 42% · Claude 33% · DeepSeek 12%

      42%

    3. Above 28%Call 22% · Claude 26% · DeepSeek 92%

      22%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  5. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 23%.

    On the Docket Pendingth076-t02Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 23.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 23.0%; no if it is below 23.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 42%.

    42%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 12%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 12%

    Your number

  6. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 28%.

    On the Docket Pendingth076-t03Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 28.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 28.0%; no if it is below 28.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 22%.

    22%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 26% · DeepSeek 92%

    Claude: 26%DeepSeek: 92%

    Your number

In The Buildout

The stories that take up this thesis, with their own Calls and tests.

A thesis page states one question and both sides of it; DeepStack takes no side in words, and its view is the number it gives each test before the date. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Pre-specified means the words were approved on or before the test’s date. Specified after the date means they were written afterwards: such a test is counted and shown, and never rated. An open question has no words yet. The Call’s number is the chance, from 0 to 100, that the Call gives the yes answer to a test’s question, recorded before the test’s date; it is DeepStack’s own reading, not a market price and not advice. The readers’ mark on the same line is the readers’ median, the middle of the numbers signed-in readers gave the test, shown from 25 readers. The machines: Each model read this page and nothing else. The number that counts is the latest one each model gave before the test closed.