DeepStackThesis test· Nov 9
NOVistra debt vs. quarterly revenue, September quarter ≥ 410%? Vistra: long-term debt as a share of revenue: 352.90% at September 30, 2026 ($21.1B against $6.0B), against a threshold of 410.00%.
Markets on the AI economy · research first, then the market
Contracts from 1c to 99c on dated, verifiable events in StackCoin, priced by readers and the house. No cash value, no blockchain, no withdrawal. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
Closes soon
One card per event: the whole ladder, the price to buy YES and NO on each rung.
Questions, rules and sources from the DeepStack engine, data as of Nov 10, 2026. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
Today's highlights
What the people we read wrote in the last 72 hours, each line tied to the contract it moves.
Torsten Slok
“The Fed may be further from its inflation goal than the market currently expects”
The buildout overshoots demand: 114 disagreements among the writers; touches US consumer price index, January: how high?
Read the memoRen
Ren's thesis would be undermined if oil stays above $100 and the Fed keeps hiking into 2027
October 30 Portfolio Update: The Hypers Missed. Should We Still Be Buying AI?
renstocks.substack.compaid source
The buildout overshoots demand: 114 disagreements among the writers; touches 10-year Treasury yield, February average?
Read the memoInvest In Assets
Invest In Assets's bear case for Alphabet is that capital expenditure is exploding — $51.4B in Q3
investinassets.netpaid source
Capex outruns operating cash flow: 24 disagreements among the writers; touches Big Tech capex growth, Q4?
Read the memo
The floor
Reading…What settled and who is talking about it.
DeepStackThesis test· Nov 9
NOVistra debt vs. quarterly revenue, September quarter ≥ 435%? Vistra: long-term debt as a share of revenue: 352.90% at September 30, 2026 ($21.1B against $6.0B), against a threshold of 435.00%.
DeepStackThesis test· Nov 9
NOVistra debt vs. quarterly revenue, September quarter ≥ 455%? Vistra: long-term debt as a share of revenue: 352.90% at September 30, 2026 ($21.1B against $6.0B), against a threshold of 455.00%.
DeepStackThesis test· Nov 9
NOVistra capex vs. revenue, September quarter ≥ 14%? Vistra capital spending as a share of revenue: 12.4% in the quarter to Sept. 30, 2026; the threshold was 14%.
DeepStackThesis test· Nov 9
NOVistra capex vs. revenue, September quarter ≥ 17%? Vistra capital spending as a share of revenue: 12.4% in the quarter to Sept. 30, 2026; the threshold was 17%.
DeepStackThesis test· Nov 9
NOVistra capex vs. revenue, September quarter ≥ 21%? Vistra capital spending as a share of revenue: 12.4% in the quarter to Sept. 30, 2026; the threshold was 21%.
DeepStackThesis test· Nov 9
NOVistra debt vs. quarterly revenue, September quarter ≥ 500%? Vistra: long-term debt as a share of revenue: 352.90% at September 30, 2026 ($21.1B against $6.0B), against a threshold of 500.00%.
DeepStackThesis test· Nov 9
NOVistra debt vs. quarterly revenue, September quarter ≥ 425%? Vistra: long-term debt as a share of revenue: 352.90% at September 30, 2026 ($21.1B against $6.0B), against a threshold of 425.00%.
Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.
The books
Investment theses, grounded in the research and tested through dated events.
—open events
The capex bill
The four hyperscalers' spending, the cash it outruns, the servers Taiwan ships them and the price of the money that pays for it.
Heat 88/100 · Thesis and research →—open events
Software under pressure
The software basket's revenue and the entry-level jobs AI reaches first: whether seat-priced software keeps growing.
Heat 75/100 · Thesis and research →—open events
Scarce parts
Memory spot prices, Korea's chip exports and the revenue of the equipment, storage and network-hardware makers: whether the parts AI runs short of stay scarce.
Heat 72/100 · Thesis and research →—open events
Powered land
Data-center construction and the revenue of Taiwan's AI hardware chain and of the power and cooling suppliers: whether the buildings fill as fast as they go up.
Heat 66/100 · Thesis and research →—open events
The debt behind the machines
The hyperscalers' lease obligations, what a used GPU fetches as collateral and the term premium of the money underneath.
Heat 64/100 · Thesis and research →—open events
Work and output
Payrolls, real growth, output per hour, the share of businesses using AI and the support jobs it can replace: whether the economy grows without hiring.
Heat 61/100 · Thesis and research →—open events
The power bill
Power sold in the data-center states, the grid's capacity price, the household bill, gas at Henry Hub and the power producers' revenue: who pays for the load.
Heat 58/100 · Thesis and research →—open events
The price of compute
What an hour of a GPU and a million tokens cost, and how much of the market open models take: the prices that decide who earns the margin.
Heat 58/100 · Thesis and research →From the Research
The research behind the books. Read the evidence, discuss the thesis, price the event.
Part 24 · Nov 9AI Pays Its Spread. Everyone Else Pays the Yield.
AI's borrowing pays its own premium. Everyone else pays through the Treasury yield it helps lift.
Read the full memo Fed's Dec minutes tie long yields to AI borrowing?
Part 23 · Nov 6Nobody Pulled the Brake
No brake, no handoff.
Read the full memo Federal AI law binding frontier labs by Dec 31?
Part 22 · Nov 4An Operating Profit, a Decade of Bills
Revenue clears 2026; price leans on 2027.
Read the full memo Anthropic IPO market value, priced by Dec 31 ≥ $1.50T?