The layers
Seven layers, one buildout.
13 Parts of The Buildout, each in one layer of the AI value chain: the question each layer asks, the Parts that take it up, the indicator each Part leads with and the next test on its clock.
Capital and credit
Who finances the buildout, on what terms, and who bears the loss if it stalls?
4 Parts · 18 tests on the Docket · 1 result
The Parts
The questions
The indicators
- $75B IPO proceeds Part 02
- $500B Wall Street-arranged chip facility Part 03
- $800B Combined annual capex Part 04
- 227 bps Oracle five-year CDS Part 08
The next tests
- September-quarter results test cash flow toward $2 trillion and whether maintenance costs enter accounting. Pre-specified Part 08
- Short-term premiums collapsing toward long-term rates would weaken the backwardation warning; persistence would make it harder to dismiss. Pre-specified Part 03
- Quarterly deployed gigawatts will test the roughly 10 GW site plan against 0.4 GW operating now. Open question Part 02
- Alphabet discloses its higher 2027 budget; a rise in the stock revives the defense case, another fall validates the return test. Pre-specified Part 04
Chips and suppliers
Do the orders turn into shipments, and the shipments into profit?
1 Part · 5 tests on the Docket · 0 results
The questions
The indicators
The next tests
Compute and cloud
Is the buyer of compute real, and does the capacity earn its cost?
1 Part · 3 tests on the Docket · 0 results
Energy and infrastructure
Who gets the power, who pays for it, and when does it arrive?
2 Parts · 8 tests on the Docket · 0 results
The indicators
The next tests
- The federal price data for August: whether the median twelve-month rise in household prices across PJM's nine jurisdictions stays at least four points above the median of the other 42, from 11.7% against 5.6% in July. Pre-specified Part 13
- ERCOT is due to verify its first large-load batch study; the cleared list shows whether Texas weeds out speculators or rations power. Open question Part 06
Labs and models
What does a frontier lab sell, and what is it paid for?
2 Parts · 10 tests on the Docket · 0 results
The Parts
The indicators
The next tests
- Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta report, and the Fed decides the same day: whether the TPU system sales inside Google Cloud's backlog get a size, and whether Cloud growth holds near the second quarter's 82% without them. Pre-specified Part 12
- Return on invested capital should be visible by Romero’s deadline; failure would turn today’s extraordinary economics into a first-year illusion. Open question Part 05
Distribution and applications
Which habits break, and who keeps the customer?
1 Part · 5 tests on the Docket · 0 results
Markets and rates
How are the buildout's earnings and debts priced, and by whom?
2 Parts · 9 tests on the Docket · 0 results
The Parts
The indicators
- 5.18% 10-year Treasury yield Part 07
- 19.0x S&P 500 forward multiple Part 10
The next tests
- Treasury publishes August foreign holdings; renewed Japanese buying despite poor hedged returns would undercut the missing-buyer thesis behind the long-end selloff. Pre-specified Part 07
- Anthropic filing or listing reveals audited revenue, losses and concentration, testing the $400B revenue milestone. Specified after the date Part 10
A Part belongs to one layer. The layers and the Part each one belongs to were approved by Marco Cauduro on October 10, 2026; the archive filters by them. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice.