Thesis · Power, Energy & Grid

Will the EIA-reported US average residential electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 18.7 cents per kWh?

Data center load growth outpaces generation and transmission additions, pushing the national average residential electricity price above 18.7 c/kWh in 2027.

6 dated tests · 0 resolved · next on

The tests More theses in Power, Energy & Grid

Who is on each side

The two sides.

Each side in DeepStack’s words, then the voices who argue it, attributed and paraphrased, dated where the date is known. A voice links to its page on DeepStack where one exists.

The case for yes

Households pay for data center load

A 320 TWh demand surge in four years lands on a grid whose utility-scale capacity was essentially flat for 15 years, so capacity, fuel and transmission costs are recovered through regulated retail rates. National average residential electricity prices rise faster than the base forecast, lifting household energy bills. Tscsw cites EIA forecasts of electricity climbing from 17.3 cents/kWh in 2025 to 18.3 cents in 2026 and 18.7 cents in 2027 as demand collides with flat generation growth.

The case for no

Cost-spreading keeps prices below the threshold

Moses Sternstein argues higher demand lets utilities distribute large fixed infrastructure costs across a bigger base of consumption, lowering per-unit prices rather than raising them as intuition suggests. Under this reasoning, data center load growth restrains rather than accelerates residential price increases. This side holds if EIA reports the 2027 average residential price at or below 18.7 cents per kWh, the outcome Sternstein's cost-spreading mechanism implies.

3 voices

Households pay for data center load

  1. Tscsw

    Utility-scale generation moved only 231 TWh from 2007-2021, essentially flat. Then 320 TWh arrived 2021-2025, creating surge in demand. EIA forecasts electricity climbing from 17.3 cents/kWh in 2025 to 18.3c in 2026 and 18.7c in 2027. PJM capacity…

    Source

  2. Michael Spencer

    The rapid deployment of AI datacenters creates surging power demand that strains US energy grids, pushing wholesale electricity costs sharply higher and accelerating consumer electricity price growth to roughly 61 percent faster than broader…

    Source

  3. Kevin Gee

    Massive simultaneous data center construction by major hyperscalers consumes huge amounts of electricity, and this demand surge collides with existing competition for materials and power from chip and green energy industrial policy, pushing up both…

    Source

1 voice

Cost-spreading keeps prices below the threshold

  1. Moses Sternstein

    Higher demand allows utilities to distribute their large fixed infrastructure costs across a larger base of consumption, resulting in lower per-unit prices rather than the intuitive outcome of higher prices from higher demand.

    Source

What would settle it

The dated tests.

Each test names the public source that settles it, the rule and the day. The Call’s number, the readers’ median and the machines’ numbers stand beside it, as on the Docket.

  1. Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 425%.

    On the Docket Pendingth078-t04Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 425.0% of its revenue for the quarter?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 425.0%; no if it is below 425.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 65%.

    65%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 72% · DeepSeek 57%

    Claude: 72%DeepSeek: 57%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 6, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 425%Call 65% · Claude 72% · DeepSeek 57%

      65%

    2. Above 470%Call 43% · Claude 13% · DeepSeek 10%

      43%

    3. Above 515%Call 21% · Claude 22% · DeepSeek 7%

      21%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  2. Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 470%.

    On the Docket Pendingth078-t05Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 470.0% of its revenue for the quarter?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 470.0%; no if it is below 470.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 43%.

    43%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 13% · DeepSeek 10%

    Claude: 13%DeepSeek: 10%

    Your number

  3. Vistra, long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 515%.

    On the Docket Pendingth078-t06Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the long-term debt of Vistra at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 515.0% of its revenue for the quarter?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Vistra (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the long-term debt that Vistra reports at the end of the quarter ended September 30, 2026 by the revenue it reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 515.0%; no if it is below 515.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Vistra has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Vistra's long-term debt as a share of the quarter's revenue was 445.2% at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, at the end of the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 420.2%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 21%.

    21%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 22% · DeepSeek 7%

    Claude: 22%DeepSeek: 7%

    Your number

  4. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 19%.

    On the Docket Pendingth078-t01Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 19.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 19.0%; no if it is below 19.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 66%.

    66%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 63% · DeepSeek 15%

    Claude: 63%DeepSeek: 15%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 9, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 19%Call 66% · Claude 63% · DeepSeek 15%

      66%

    2. Above 23%Call 45% · Claude 33% · DeepSeek 8%

      45%

    3. Above 27%Call 24% · Claude 33% · DeepSeek 94%

      24%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  5. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 23%.

    On the Docket Pendingth078-t02Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 23.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 23.0%; no if it is below 23.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 45%.

    45%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 8%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 8%

    Your number

  6. Constellation Energy, purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue, quarter ended September 30, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 27%.

    On the Docket Pendingth078-t03Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the purchases of property and equipment of Constellation Energy for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 come to at or above 27.0% of its revenue?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Constellation Energy (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Divide the purchases of property and equipment by the revenue that Constellation Energy reports for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if the ratio is at or above 27.0%; no if it is below 27.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Constellation Energy has not filed by November 16, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Constellation Energy's purchases of property and equipment as a share of revenue was 21.3% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    A year earlier, for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, the same line read 14.9%, so the rungs sit on the last print.
    What would change the number
    A change in product mix, a one-time charge, or a reclassified line would move the reading.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 24%.

    24%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 33% · DeepSeek 94%

    Claude: 33%DeepSeek: 94%

    Your number

In The Buildout

The stories that take up this thesis, with their own Calls and tests.

A thesis page states one question and both sides of it; DeepStack takes no side in words, and its view is the number it gives each test before the date. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Pre-specified means the words were approved on or before the test’s date. Specified after the date means they were written afterwards: such a test is counted and shown, and never rated. An open question has no words yet. The Call’s number is the chance, from 0 to 100, that the Call gives the yes answer to a test’s question, recorded before the test’s date; it is DeepStack’s own reading, not a market price and not advice. The readers’ mark on the same line is the readers’ median, the middle of the numbers signed-in readers gave the test, shown from 25 readers. The machines: Each model read this page and nothing else. The number that counts is the latest one each model gave before the test closed.