Thesis · Semiconductors & Compute Silicon

Will the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) total return exceed the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) total return over the period 2026-01-01 to 2027-09-30?

Bottleneck rent at the silicon layer keeps semiconductor equity returns ahead of software equity returns through the AI capital cycle.

6 dated tests · 0 resolved · next on

The tests More theses in Semiconductors & Compute Silicon

Who is on each side

The two sides.

Each side in DeepStack’s words, then the voices who argue it, attributed and paraphrased, dated where the date is known. A voice links to its page on DeepStack where one exists.

The case for yes

Margin migrates to chips and power

Capital floods into AI build-out faster than the supply chain can add capacity, concentrating pricing power and incremental profit at chip, packaging and memory chokepoints while software faces AI disintermediation and multiple compression. Semiconductor equities re-rate relative to software equities over the window, a market-level signature of profit-pool migration downstack to upstack. Because these supplier stages are small relative to total AI spending, a single order is material to them, reinforcing the concentration.

The case for no

IGV outperforms SOX as application value wins

No means IGV's total return exceeds SOX's total return over the 2026-01-01 to 2027-09-30 window. This would show first if the infrastructure build-out phase gives way, as it did with railroads, electrification and the internet, to non-technology sectors reorganizing around AI and capturing the value themselves through application-layer products. It would also show if enterprises keep shifting spending toward providers chosen for product execution, cost efficiency and credibility rather than raw infrastructure, letting software capture more of the gain than chips.

6 voices

Margin migrates to chips and power

  1. Conestoga Capital Advisors LLC

    Chipmakers and capital equipment providers serving AI infrastructure demands significantly outperform software companies, which face slower enterprise IT budgets, elongated sales cycles, and cautious spending by smaller businesses. Software has…

    Source

  2. Moses Sternstein

    The AI infrastructure wave demands physical infrastructure and hardware to operationalize AI capabilities, shifting investor and market attention from software-only to hardware and infrastructure companies. This rotation is reinforced by defense…

    Source

  3. Artisan Partners

    Expanding AI capabilities sent software shares tumbling as investors reassessed business models, competitive positioning and long-term monetization potential. At the same time, leadership within AI shifted toward infrastructure-oriented segments…

    Source

  4. Diamond Hill Capital Management

    As companies and governments invest in AI infrastructure, demand for semiconductors and hardware supporting that buildout rises, lifting pricing and valuations for companies positioned in the supply chain. Market performance becomes concentrated in…

    Source

  5. Third Point

    AI applications like Anthropic's legal and financial analysis tools undermine the historical competitive advantages of capital-light software businesses, prompting investors to question moat sustainability and high-margin structures.…

    Source

  6. Market Sentiment

    When spending overwhelms a stage of the chain, that stage becomes the constraint and captures a disproportionate share of incremental capital; because these suppliers are small relative to the deals, a single order is material to them while…

    Source

2 voices

IGV outperforms SOX as application value wins

  1. Vltava Fund

    Following the historical pattern of railroads, electrification, and the internet, an initial infrastructure build-out phase precedes a later phase in which non-technology sectors leverage the new capability to reorganize their operations and…

    Source

  2. Michael Spencer

    As businesses spend more on AI tokens and evaluate suppliers on product execution and cost efficiency rather than raw model power, enterprises shift spending toward the provider with the best cost structure, product-market fit, and credibility.…

    Source

What would settle it

The dated tests.

Each test names the public source that settles it, the rule and the day. The Call’s number, the readers’ median and the machines’ numbers stand beside it, as on the Docket.

  1. Applied Materials, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 38%.

    On the Docket Pendingth050-t04Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the revenue of Applied Materials for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 38.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Applied Materials (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the revenue that Applied Materials reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 38.0%; no if it is below 38.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Applied Materials has not filed by December 31, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Applied Materials's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.8% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 51.5%, and the middle rung is centred there.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 72%.

    72%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 40% · DeepSeek 30%

    Claude: 40%DeepSeek: 30%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 12, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 38%Call 72% · Claude 40% · DeepSeek 30%

      72%

    2. Above 50%Call 52% · Claude 5% · DeepSeek 5%

      52%

    3. Above 60%Call 26% · Claude 5% · DeepSeek 2%

      26%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  2. Applied Materials, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 50%.

    On the Docket Pendingth050-t05Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the revenue of Applied Materials for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 50.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Applied Materials (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the revenue that Applied Materials reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 50.0%; no if it is below 50.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Applied Materials has not filed by December 31, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Applied Materials's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.8% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 51.5%, and the middle rung is centred there.

    The Call, before the dateEither answer fits the Call. Gives the yes answer 52%.

    52%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 5% · DeepSeek 5%

    Claude: 5%DeepSeek: 5%

    Your number

  3. Applied Materials, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 60%.

    On the Docket Pendingth050-t06Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the revenue of Applied Materials for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 60.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Applied Materials (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the revenue that Applied Materials reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 60.0%; no if it is below 60.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Applied Materials has not filed by December 31, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    Applied Materials's revenue growth from a year earlier was 24.8% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 51.5%, and the middle rung is centred there.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 26%.

    26%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 5% · DeepSeek 2%

    Claude: 5%DeepSeek: 2%

    Your number

  4. NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 82%.

    On the Docket Pendingth050-t01Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 82.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 82.0%; no if it is below 82.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there.

    The Call, before the dateExpects yes. Gives the yes answer 70%.

    70%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 14% · DeepSeek 35%

    Claude: 14%DeepSeek: 35%
    The ladder 3 rungs on one reading, Nov 18, 2026: each asks whether it lands above its threshold, so the Call’s numbers down the rungs sketch where it expects the reading to land.

    1. Above 82%Call 70% · Claude 14% · DeepSeek 35%

      70%

    2. Above 91%Call 50% · Claude 8% · DeepSeek 14%

      50%

    3. Above 101%Call 28% · Claude 6% · DeepSeek 7%

      28%

    0 · no50100 · yes

    Your number

  5. NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 91%.

    On the Docket Pendingth050-t02Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 91.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 91.0%; no if it is below 91.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there.

    The Call, before the dateEither answer fits the Call. Gives the yes answer 50%.

    50%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 8% · DeepSeek 14%

    Claude: 8%DeepSeek: 14%

    Your number

  6. NVIDIA, revenue growth from a year earlier, quarter ended October 25, 2026: whether it comes in at or above 101%.

    On the Docket Pendingth050-t03Pre-specified

    Question
    Did the revenue of Nvidia for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 grow at or above 101.0% from the quarter ended October 26, 2025?
    Source
    SEC EDGAR, XBRL company facts of Nvidia (Forms 10-Q and 10-K)
    Rule
    Compare the revenue that Nvidia reports for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 with the quarter ended October 26, 2025, in its 10-Q or 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR. The answer is yes if growth is at or above 101.0%; no if it is below 101.0%.
    If the source is late, revised or silent
    If Nvidia has not filed by December 11, 2026, or a filing restates a period the rule reads, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing.
    Base rate
    NVIDIA's revenue growth from a year earlier was 105.9% for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, by its filing on SEC EDGAR.
    Outside view
    The year-earlier quarter is not on the same concept in the filings, so the rungs sit on the last print alone.
    What would change the number
    The results-calendar consensus for the quarter ended October 25, 2026 implies 90.9%, and the middle rung is centred there.

    The Call, before the dateExpects no. Gives the yes answer 28%.

    28%

    0 · no100 · yes

    The machinesClaude 6% · DeepSeek 7%

    Claude: 6%DeepSeek: 7%

    Your number

In The Buildout

The stories that take up this thesis, with their own Calls and tests.

A thesis page states one question and both sides of it; DeepStack takes no side in words, and its view is the number it gives each test before the date. Analysis and opinion, not investment advice. Voices are paraphrased from public writing and attributed by name; DeepStack shows no score, ranking or accuracy for any person. Pre-specified means the words were approved on or before the test’s date. Specified after the date means they were written afterwards: such a test is counted and shown, and never rated. An open question has no words yet. The Call’s number is the chance, from 0 to 100, that the Call gives the yes answer to a test’s question, recorded before the test’s date; it is DeepStack’s own reading, not a market price and not advice. The readers’ mark on the same line is the readers’ median, the middle of the numbers signed-in readers gave the test, shown from 25 readers. The machines: Each model read this page and nothing else. The number that counts is the latest one each model gave before the test closed.