Are the US and China building two separate AI markets, or only two markets for chips?

The Commerce Department's pause on its affiliates rule ends on paper: whether a Federal Register document extends it by that day. The truce announced on September 23 is not such a document.

Part 18: The Fence Stops at the Chip Pendingp18-t01Pre-specified

Question

By November 9, 2026, does the Bureau of Industry and Security publish in the Federal Register, or place on public inspection there, a document extending the suspension of its affiliates rule beyond November 9, 2026?

Source

Federal Register, documents and public inspection of the Bureau of Industry and Security

Rule

Read the bureau's documents and the public inspection entries on federalregister.gov through November 9, 2026. The answer is yes if a document of the Bureau of Industry and Security that extends the one-year suspension published as Federal Register 2025-19846 beyond November 9, 2026, or leaves it in force without an end date, was published or placed on public inspection by the end of November 9, 2026; no if none was, including when officials announce an extension that no document carries by that day.

If the source is late, revised or silent

If federalregister.gov cannot be read on November 10, 2026, the same pages are read on November 12, since public inspection entries carry their filing time. If no reading is possible by November 13, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is November 16, 2026. A document placed on public inspection by November 9 and published afterward counts as yes.

Nvidia reports its quarter to October 25, 2026: whether its 10-Q puts licensed H200 shipments to China at 1% or more of Data Center revenue, after less than 1% in the quarter to July 26.

Part 18: The Fence Stops at the Chip Pendingp18-t02Pre-specified

Question

Does Nvidia's Form 10-Q for the quarter ending October 25, 2026 put shipments of licensed H200 products to China-based customers at 1% or more of that quarter's Data Center revenue?

Source

SEC EDGAR, NVIDIA Form 10-Q for the third quarter of fiscal 2027, discussion of export controls and China (CIK 1045810)

Rule

Read the 10-Q's discussion of export controls and of the H200 licenses for China. The answer is yes if it states a share of 1% or more, or a dollar amount equal to or above 1% of the quarter's Data Center revenue, for shipments of H200, or of another product licensed under the rule of January 15, 2026, to customers in China; no if it states less than 1%, says there were no such shipments, or gives no figure for them. In the quarter ended July 26, 2026 the same section said less than 1% of Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion.

If the source is late, revised or silent

If the 10-Q is not public on SEC EDGAR by December 15, 2026, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is January 5, 2027. A share given only for all shipments to China, or for all Hopper products, does not decide the test and enters the Result as evidence.

Whether the FCC's Covered List carries an entry for optical transceivers or modules, after its October 9, 2026 update left them off.

Part 18: The Fence Stops at the Chip Pendingp18-t03Pre-specified

Question

By December 31, 2026, does the FCC's Covered List carry an entry for optical transceivers or optical modules, named by producer or by country of production?

Source

Federal Communications Commission, Covered List

Rule

Read the Covered List page and the FCC public notices that update it through December 31, 2026. The answer is yes if an entry added by that day names optical transceivers or optical modules, by producer or by country of production; no if no such entry was added. The component rule effective October 13, 2026, which reaches logic-bearing parts from producers already listed, does not count, nor does a proposal that adds no entry. The list as updated October 9, 2026 carried no such entry.

If the source is late, revised or silent

If the Covered List page cannot be read on January 4, 2027, the FCC's public notices on docs.fcc.gov dated through December 31, 2026 are read instead. If neither can be read by January 8, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is January 11, 2027.

Whether a law or a Federal Register rule bars agencies beyond the Pentagon and the intelligence community from Chinese-developed AI models; the defense act of December 2025 reaches only those buyers and their contractors.

Part 18: The Fence Stops at the Chip Pendingp18-t04Pre-specified

Question

By March 31, 2027, does a public law, or a rule or executive order published in the Federal Register, bar federal agencies beyond the Department of Defense and the intelligence community from acquiring or using AI models developed by companies based in China?

Source

GovInfo, public laws of the 119th Congress, read with the Federal Register

Rule

Read the public laws listed on GovInfo and the rules and executive orders published in the Federal Register through March 31, 2027. The answer is yes if one of them, signed or published by that day, bars executive agencies other than the Department of Defense and the intelligence community, or their contractors, from acquiring or using AI models developed by DeepSeek or by other companies based in China, whatever its effective date; no if none does. Rules that implement section 1532 of Public Law 119-60 for defense contracts do not count, nor do bills passed by one chamber, agency memoranda or bans limited to an app on government devices.

If the source is late, revised or silent

If govinfo.gov or federalregister.gov cannot be read on April 1, 2027, the test is read on April 5 from congress.gov's list of public laws and the Federal Register's public inspection pages. If no reading is possible by April 9, 2027, the test is inconclusive, and the Result says what was read and what was missing; the next reading is April 12, 2027. A law signed by March 31 and listed later is read from its signing date.